DISCLAIMER - NIKZAFRI.BLOGSPOT.COM


There is a fixed point that intersects many other realities.For any event there is an infinite number of possible outcomes. Our choices determine which outcome will follow. That all possibilities that can happen do happen in alternate reality

Guidelines for Foster Gamble’s Atomic Geometry a) Universe is a continuous, alive and infinite medium. b) The metaphysical, conceptual “geometry” of balance of the system will always be present and, because it is in equilibrium, it will be invisible. c) All multiplication happens by division of the wholeness. d) All form and matter are a function of motion (in the medium), centered by stillness, so action, not matter, is basic, and comes in wholes.

e) All processes evolve through maximum simplicity and efficiency.

f) The simplest distinction creating a self-sustaining entity as motion in and of the medium is toroidal.

g) Since every system is in rotation and embedded in other rotating systems, all movement is helical.

h) All systems are connected, and all centers are one.

i) Complexity builds on combinations and variations of toroidal field distinctions — following fundamental principles of least-effort division of the space medium cohering geometrically around any “point” as center.

j) Each “point” is the center of its system even as it participates in other systems with other centers.

k) There are an infinite number of “points” or “centers”.

l) Curvature toward and away from a center is infinite.

m) Within the infinite is the finite and within the finite is the infinite.

n) The structuring of “reality” is fractal and holographic in nature.

o) Quantization of space pre-exists matter.

p) Since the whole must always be in balance, any event, impulse, break in symmetry is always accompanied by its complementary dual (reflected as linear and radial polarity, opposite — direction, rotation, charge, — contraction/expansion, edge/vertex, fields, alternating shells etc.…)
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Nik Zafri's Current Status (21 October, 2014)

Tiada sebuah negara pun di dunia ini yang berhak memberikan alasan untuk mengelak dari melakukan sesuatu sebagai sumbangan demi membantu proses perubahan. Apa sahaja yang kita lakukan akan bergantung kepada bagaimana kita menyelaraskan usaha secara kerjasama.




BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI

NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID, CONSULTANT/TRAINER

Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com

* Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Diploma (Management), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences(local/international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant. Affiliations :- Institute of Quality Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Management, Malaysian Occupational Safety and Health Professionals Association, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSAS 18000 (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000:2004 and Construction Quality Assessment System (CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore)

* Possesses 20 years experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knigh Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK) etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore), LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd. and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients were Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia, Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan, The Institution of Engineers Malaysia, Corporate HQ of RHB, NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor, Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia, State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan, Hidrological Department KL, Asahi Kluang Johor, Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor, Consortium PANZANA, Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor, Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor, Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor, Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor, MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor, UITM Shah Alam Selangor, Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable (ODM/OEM for Astro), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd, ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group), Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd., Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd.,Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB, Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia, T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd.LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd. (Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (C & S, Geotech), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU)etc.

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

HIERARCHIES - ORGANIZATION AND ORGANIZED CRIMES - NIK ZAFRI



A good management hierarchical structure will always put PEOPLE FIRST. A good boss will always address himself in an official letter as "WE" but the final signatory is him. When there are major legal problems happening in the top management , it is always the good boss that will surrender first!


It is a well known fact that the 2nd tiers are sometimes the 'UNLUCKY' ones, they worked so hard for the top management and with a minimum wage pay, becoming punching bags from 'top and bottom' - they are the ones who are absorbing all the pressures and they are the ones who usually suffer!

But in most cases today - when there are major legal problems,  the blame will go right to the bottom, because the 1st hierarchical 'lip-service' structure' chooses the 2nd pyramid (the organized crime structure) making all the people below be blamed because of the top management problems.

The 2nd pyramid - a typical organized crime structure or a cult ring, will always put the bosses or cult leaders on the top especially the 3rd and the last tiers - they will always fight to defend the top bosses even hide the identities of their leaders - there is also ample opportunity for the 2nd tier to be in the first tier when the boss retires or dies. 

When there is a problem from the top tier, it is always the last tier will take all the blames. (the same goes to the first hierarchical structure that choose the 2nd pyramid as their MO)

It is a well-known fact that the 2nd tiers are the LUCKY ones, they are simply thinkers, brainchilds, 1st class hackers etc. Less work but lots of play. They are very well-paid and the bottom tiers and the crime lords will bow to them as if they are deities. They will dictate terms and conditions, living lavishly with posh cars and bungalows etc.

If something goes wrong on the top, they are the ones either : 

a) Betray their bosses and cooperate with the authorities under 'special protection program' or

b) Sneak out quietly, fly overseas and let the boss suffer in jail.

If the authorities wish to crack the crime ring, they must first take away the first and 2nd tiers, not the 3rd and the 4th. If this is done, then the whole system will break down. If the authorities merely attack the 3rd and the 4th tiers, there will be new tiers constructed as the real brains are in the 2nd and 1st tiers.

If the good bosses wish to make their organizations grow further, the personnel/workers/support staff must first be looked at

They must also give way to the 3rd tier to make it to the 2nd tier. Most important - via a job-rotation or some other equivalent program, the top management can ensure security to the the 2nd tier going to the top - not leaving them behind or put them in a freezer.

The 2nd tier must be 'well-guarded' and given special attention - otherwise they might join the organized crime structure and be more lavish than their previous and current bosses.

(Something to ponder - from me Nik Zafri).

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

CONSTRUCTION - ISO 9000 CERTIFIED - SO WHAT? IMPROVEMENT REQUIRED.... (NIK ZAFRI)

These are part of my training slides for ISO certified company (using a high-impact approach). Further enquiry on the training, please e-mail nikzafri@yahoo.com (genuine RFQ only!)

QUALITY CONTINUOUS JOURNEY – WHAT ELSE CAN BE IMPROVED?

Introduction/Refresher

1.0 QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

Definition for Quality: 

• Fitness for Purpose (Internal and External Quality Control - 50%) and 
• Client's and Internal Satisfaction (Internal and External Quality Assurance – 50%) - Both QC and QA have respective specifications to be fulfilled – combined both = Quality Management System (QMS)



Common Challenge 1

The word “Quality” on Manual, Policy, Procedures etc. should not be narrowed only to the Quality Department or Management Representative.

Quality is always a shared commitment.

Then Quality Manual, Quality Policy, Quality Procedures are to be deemed and understood as your Company's Manual, your Company's Policy, your Company's Procedures.

Rationale : to avoid 'finger pointing'

Common Challenge 2

Quality, Health and Safety, Security, Environment - Domino Theory – One tile fall, so will the others – ALL IS REQUIRED

Once again, the same as Common Challenge 1 – not to be narrowed to a certain department e.g. Safety & Health and Security is a SHARED COMMITMENT thus making them your Company's Manual, your Company's Policy, your Company's Procedures.

Rationale : to avoid 'finger pointing'

BRANDING :

THIS IS THE WAY YOUR COMPANY WORKS!!!

COMMON ERROR

Your Company is Certified NOT Accredited (by ISO....)

CERTIFICATION BODY – A body that issued the certificate according to the nature of business – e.g. SIRIM QAS, DET NORSKE VERITAS, LLOYDS, SGS ETC. 

ACCREDITATION BODY - A Body that accredits the scope of business/industry in order to qualify the certs issued by the certification body (Accredited Certification Body) e.g. – DEPARTMENT OF STANDARDS MALAYSIA (DSM), UNITED KINGDOM ACCREDITATION SERVICE (UKAS), ANSI-ASQ – NATIONAL ACCREDITATION SERVICE (US) ETC. (MINISTRY OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION (MOSTI)

OTHER KNOWN EXAMPLES

Education

INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING MALAYSIA (CERTIFICATE PROVIDER – PHD, DEGREE, DIPLOMA IN ???) MUST BE ACCREDITED BY MALAYSIAN QUALIFICATION AGENCY (MQA) – USED TO BE CALLED LAN. MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

Competency and Skills

COMPETENCY BASED INSTITUTION (CERTIFICATE PROVIDER – SKM 1 – 5 IN ???) MUST BE ACCREDITED BY NATIONAL VOCATIONAL TRAINING CENTRE (MLVK) – MINISTRY OF HUMAN RESOURCES


2.0 DOCUMENTATION

2.1 Quality Manual

- Common Error : Do it make sufficient reference to the Laws, Regulations, Standards etc.? e.g. This Manual is developed by taking into account the following Laws, Regulations, Standards as far as is applicable:

a. Occupational Health and Safety Act 1994
b. Environmental Quality Act, 1974
c. The International Safety Management Code (ISM) – an International Management Code
for the Safe Operation of Ships and for Pollution Prevention,
d. Petroleum Mining Act, 1966
e. ISO 9001:2008
f. OHSAS 18001: 2007
g. EMS ISO 14000 : 2004

WHY?

This is :

a. To assure the Client's that every measure has been taken to customize the documentation to support contractual requirements.
b. To ensure a stringent enforcement

NOT A GREAT CHALLENGE : TO INTEGRATE QUALITY, HEALTH & SAFETY, SECURITY, ENVIRONMENT (HSEQ) MOST OF YOU HAVE DONE IT!

CHALLENGE 1 : CERTAIN CERTIFICATION BODIES VIA ADEQUACY/ COMPLIANCE/SURVEILLANCE ASSESSMENTS - TENDS TO TREAT QUALITY AS A SEPARATE ISSUE - (ISO 9000), HEALTH AND SAFETY A SEPARATE ISSUE (OHSAS 18000), ENVIRONMENT A SEPARATE ISSUE (EMS ISO 14000)

CHALLENGE 2 : THE RESPONSIBILITY SPELLED OUT IN PROCEDURES COMPARED TO JOB DESCRIPTION, DUTIES, RESPONSIBILITIES AND AUTHORITIES. INTEGRATE BOTH IN THE JD! NO OVERLAPPING!

CHALLENGE 3 : METHOD STATEMENTS VS JOB SAFETY ANALYSIS – INTEGRATE OR NOT TO INTEGRATE?

3.0 MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBILITY

What is RESPONSIBILITY? What is COMMITMENT?

Simple Formula

A) RESPONSIBILITY + COMMITMENT = ACCOUNTABILITY

Responsible for WHAT?

- Budget, Plant and Machinery, Conducive Working Environment, Transportation, ICT etc.

Commited to WHAT?

- ensure implementation of The LAW, Quality, Safety, Security, Environment, Standards, Customer Requirements/Specifications, Vision, Objectives, KRA-KPI, Balance Scorecard etc. 

ACCOUNTABLE to providing resources to ensure smooth operation from start to end.

So - the equation : 

   ACCOUNTABILITY 
+ RESPONSIBILITY 
+ COMMITMENT 
--------------------
LEADERSHIP
-----------------

LEADERSHIP of WHAT?

PEOPLE

Common Error

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS, KEY RESULT AREAS, BALANCE SCORECARDS, DEPARTMENT/UNIT OBJECTIVES ARE OF DIFFERENT PLANETS – NOT LINKED TO ONE ANOTHER - OBJECTIVES SHOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH KPI, KRA, BALANCE SCORECARD ETC. (CASCADING PRINCIPLE – PETER DRUCKER – MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES

4.0  TRAINING



5.0  PLANNING, OPERATION, PROCUREMENT, CONTROL (PRODUCT REALIZATION)

5.1 Planning

You have proper scheduling – CONGRATULATIONS - with all the Critical Path Method (CPM) – Pert Analysis, Gantt Chart etc. GOOD! 

Improvement: The RED BAR to indicate CPM on every activity



Additional explanatory notes are REQUIRED besides than depending on the data inputs from the software. This is WHERE Quality comes in with the experience of Data Analysis and Improvement to be made! Thus the CPM should also take into account quality setbacks based on experience running a project. Hence will improve the timing accuracy 

THIS CAN BE REFLECTED IN THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT/PROGRESS REPORTS

Common Error 1

AUDIT? – A SCHEDULED & PERIODICAL ASSESSMENT ON THE OVERALL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM – BE IT QUALITY, SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT

INSPECTION? – A ROUTINE UNSCHEDULED ASSESSMENT ON PRODUCT & WORKMANSHIP (PROJECT) - CONTRACTED

SIMILARITY : BOTH CAN ISSUE NON-CONFORMANCE REPORTS (NCR) /CORRECTIVE ACTION REQUEST (CAR)

CHALLENGE

DO CLIENT REQUIRE PROJECT QUALITY (OR HSEQ) PLAN? OR PROJECT EXECUTION PLAN (IF YOU ARE IN THE CONSULTING/DESIGN CAPACITY) OR YOU JUST DEPEND ON THE CONTRACT SPECS OR IF THE CLIENT DO NOT NEED IT – WHY DO IT? (PROACTIVE VS REACTIVE!)


6.0 MEASUREMENT ANALYSIS AND IMPROVEMENT

DO YOU MEASURE COST OF QUALITY

(IS IT STATED ANYWHERE IN THE NCR?, SITE DIARY, LOGS - INTANGIBLE COST)

PREVENTIVE ACTION :

DO YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PAST DATUM OF WASTAGE CONTROL, POSSIBLE REPAIR ETC (CONTINGENCY) - TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE FUTURE COSTING/BQ? 

QUALITY CAN HELP IN MAKING YOUR CONTINGENCY COST BETTER. ANALYSIS OF DATA, CONTINUAL IMPROVEMENT PROPOSAL FROM THE MANAGEMENT REVIEW MEETING - CAN BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WHEN DOING FUTURE COSTING AND BILL OF QUANTITIES.

E.G. BUFFER STOCK – WHERE DID THE DATA CAME FROM?

CONCLUSION

QUALITY IS A CONTINUOUS JOURNEY.

DO NOT BE IN THE COMFORTABLE ZONE.

YOU’LL KNOW HOW IMPORTANT THIS IS WHEN YOUR COMPANY STARTS DIVERSIFYING FURTHER!

(well...THEY MIGHT!)

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Kawalan Emosi dan Psikologi Pelabur dalam Meramal Pasaran Saham – NIK ZAFRI

Nota/Penafian : Artikel ini adalah pendapat peribadi penulis sebagai berkongsi pengalaman kembali (setelah jatuh) membuat pelaburan di pasaran saham.



Kita sering melihat rancangan, segmen berita, wawancara dan lain-lain yang memaparkan perangkaan yang menunjukkan pembetulan dalam pasaran (market correction) tetapi adakah ini satu perkara yang penting perlu kita ketahui?

Saya melihat perubahan mendadak dalam cara kebanyakan penganalisa atau peramal pasaran mencuba sedaya-upaya untuk meramal pasaran saham. Apabila saya meneliti setiap komen, analisa, ramalan yang diberikan – kebanyakannya (bukan semua) – tidak pasti dan sifat ‘playsafe’ atau ‘tunggu dan lihat’ – menjadikan semua pendapat yang diberikan hanyalah teori semata-mata.

Izinkan saya berkongsi sedikit pandangan holistik saya mengenai pasaran saham dan kenapa saya bertanggapan bahawa percubaan untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadangkala membazir masa dan sumber.

Pertama – kenaikan dan penurunan pasaran saham. Ini kerana pasaran adalah di mana ‘pembeli dan ‘penjual’ bergabung.  Apabila terdapat ramai ‘penjual’ dari ‘pembeli’, maka harga akan turun.  (apabila 'pembeli' ramai dari 'penjual', maka harga saham akan melambung tinggi)

Sebabnya : Dari pengalaman saya sendiri, saya melihat, kadangkala pelabur lebih dipengaruhi perasaan berbanding dengan logik. Apabila bertindak mengikut perasaan, maka pasaran akan menjadi tidak stabil. Maka sebarang ramalan akan menjadi buntu. Sebaliknya jika pelabur bertindak secara logik, maka pasaran juga berpotensi menjadi stabil.

Kedua - Menghabiskan masa terlalu lama di hadapan skrin untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadang-kadang boleh dianggap sebagai ‘membazir masa’. Adalah lebih baik, kita tumpukan 80% dari masa berkenaan dengan membaca bahan-bahan yang menambahkan pengetahuan pelaburan dan 20% diberikan terhadap skrin.

Ketiga - Pelabur berpengalaman akan tahu bahawa trend sering menunjukkan bahawa bulan Ogos, September (terutamanya September) atau Oktober, akan berlaku sesuatu yang mampu mengubah pergerakan saham, antara lain ialah : 

  • Peperangan (terutamanya peperangan yang berlaku secara mengejut)
  • kesan asimetrik yang berasal dari luar negara (negara yang dipanggil ‘negara maju’) yang mengalami hutang negara yang sangat besar atau kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan menjadi terlalu tinggi)
  • kadar pengangguran yang sangat tinggi (tandanya : apabila pembayaran gratuiti atau bonus pada 2-3 bulan sebelumnya ‘terlalu tinggi’)
  • kenaikan sumber tenaga secara mendadak, seperti petroleum dan diesel (minyak mentah termasuk minyak tanah) - apa yang ganjil ialah fenomena ini diikuti dengan kenaikan bahanapi yang lain seperti arangbatu, hidro dll TERMASUK alternatif seperti minyak sawit dan tenaga solar (saya pun hairan kenapa? - tetapi saya seperti bersedia untuk menghadapi suasana berkenaan)
  • kenaikan harga barang makanan secara tiba-tiba(tidak semestinya kenaikan barangan terkawal seperti gula dan minyak masak sahaja)
  • kenaikan kos sara hidup (Contohnya kenaikan nilai hartanah selaras dengan kedatangan pelabur asing)
  • nilai projek contohnya pembinaan yang dijalankan terlalu tinggi dari kebiasaan (mungkin pelabur terkejut, jika saya katakan bahawa, nilai projek yang tinggi BUKAN disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga bahan binaan tetapi kerana faktor dalaman seperti pembaziran, kerosakan yang tinggi tanpa kawalan, kemalangan di tempat kerja dan juga rasuah!)

Dan banyak lagi tanda-tanda lain – ada juga trend yang berlaku secara domestik (dalam negara) dan bukan berasal di peringkat antarabangsa.

Hal-hal yang disebutkan di atas juga menyebabkan pasaran menjadi ‘volatile’. Maka pelabur kadangkala banyak bergantung kepada maklumat dalam internet dan tidak lagi memeriksa kesahihan maklumat berkenaan. 

Kadangkala ada maklumat yang bermotifkan spekulasi untuk memanipulasikan psikologi pelabur bagi menjual atau membeli (berawaslah)

Pendekata, tidak ada sebarang pelaburan yang boleh dikategorikan sebagai ‘sempurna’.  Ianya bergantung kepada proses dan kebarangkalian.

Sebenarnya, salah satu faktor kejayaan saya sendiri (secara peribadi) ialah semua sumber yang pernah saya pelajari atau rujuk perlu digabungkan dengan pengalaman saya sendiri. Dengan kata lain, saya sendiri mencipta teknik pelaburan yang tersendiri dan tidak terlalu bergantung kepada bahan-bahan yang ‘bersepah’ di internet atau mengharapkan analisa dan ramalan pasaran pakar.

Apa yang penting kepada saya ialah meninggikan kebarangkalian untuk mengambil tindakan yang betul (kerana saya juga tidak kebal dari melakukan kesilapan). Tindakan yang betul ‘berulangkali’ akan meninggikan lagi kebarangkalian untuk saya meraih keuntungan berbanding berulangkali tindakan yang silap akan meninggikan kebarangkalian saya mengalami kerugian yang besar.

Jika diperhatikan betul-betul, semuanya bergerak dalam satu kitaran. Ada yang naik dan ada yang turun (begitulah sebaliknya)

Setiap kali adanya ‘bullish’, maka ianya akan diikuti dengan ‘bearish’. Begitulah sebaliknya.

Setiap kali berlakunya pembetulan (correction), maka akan datang pemulihan (recovery)

Walaubagaimanapun, bukan perkara yang senang untuk meramal dan mengawal pasaran saham. Ramai yang kecewa apabila perkara ini berlaku.

Tetapi yang pasti, pasaran saham adalah peluang keemasan untuk menjana pendapatan sekiranya pelabur menggunakan teknik dan strategi pelaburan yang ‘matang’ (persediaan untuk ‘untung dan rugi’ dalam pelaburan)

Jangan terlalu beranggapan bahawa pasaran saham merupakan cara ‘rahsia’ untuk menjadikan anda seorang yang kaya kerana ‘cita-cita’ itu kadangkala akan menjadi ‘illusi’ dan anda pasti kecewa melihat hasilnya. Jika anda beranggapan begini, maka anda juga menjadikan diri anda sebagai ‘spekulator’ dan anda setaraf dengan mereka yang berjudi atau menikam loteri.


Pasaran saham bukan tempat spekulasi atau perjudian – ianya adalah perniagaan yang mempunyai ‘untung dan rugi’ dan bukannya ‘untung’ semata-mata atau ‘rugi semata-mata'

No, You Can't Use Fund Flows To Predict Stock Market Movements

DON FISHBACK, BETA ODDS SEP. 30, 2010, 5:11 PM

I suppose I could leave it at that, but perhaps a little explanation is warranted.


There was an article on Business Insider today that told of a formula for market success. It was based on “following” mutual fund flows. When fund flows are positive, go long a broad-based market index, such as SPY. When fund flows are negative, go short the SPY.

If that sounds familiar, it should. Almost one year to the day, I wrote about the same thing!

Here’s a link to the post titled Busting Yet Another Market Myth (Please refer to the author's official blog )

There were actually two parts to last year’s post. One part dealt with what happened to the stock market after the broad-based indexes rose more than a given percentage above their long-term moving averages. The second part dealt with what happened to the stock market after mutual fund flows of stock funds were positive or negative.

I showed that from the period beginning in 2007, a terrific strategy would have been to do the non-contrarian thing and follow fund flows. In other words, the conclusion the Business Insider contributor reached was correct based on the data period analyzed.


Importantly, I also showed that had you selected a different time period, the results would have shown the exact opposite! In other words, following fund flows would have proven to be disastrous. You would have completely missed out on a huge market rally.



What’s more, in my analysis, I did not go short when fund flows were negative as the Business Insider article suggested. Had you also gone short when flows were negative from 1984 to 1990, would have been catastrophically wiped out!

Bottom line, there is no evidence that, when measured over an extended time period, mutual fund flows predict gains and losses.

This article originally appeared at Beta Odds. Copyright 2014.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

300-tonne concrete span at MRT construction site falls, three workers feared dead

The Star - Nation : Home > News > Nation

Published: Monday August 18, 2014 MYT 11:39:00 PM
Updated: Tuesday August 19, 2014 MYT 12:32:04 AM

BY DINA MURAD AND NADIRAH H. RODZI


A picture of the fallen beam tweeted by the Fire and Rescue Department (@bombaJBPM).

PETALING JAYA: Three workers are feared dead after a 300-tonne concrete span collapsed at a MRT construction site in Kota Damansara Monday night.

In a statement, Mass Rapid Transit Corporation (MRT Corp) said the incident occurred at the MRT worksite within the former Rubber Research Institute site near Kota Damansara.

"The incident occurred at around 8.30pm while construction of the parapet was being carried out on the MRT elevated guideway.

"A span of the guideway had dislodged from its piers and fallen on the ground below. The span, which was made up of 14 units of segmented box girders, was 38m in length and weighed 300 tonnes.

"MRT Corp confirms that three workers are unaccounted for and are believed to be trapped underneath. Rescue efforts are currently on-going and an emergency response team is on standby at the site," it said.

It later revealed the names of the three workers unaccounted for, namely Bangladesh nationals Mohamad Faruk Khan, Mohammad Elahi Hossain and Mohammad Alauddin Mollik.

The Fire and Rescue Department's (@bombaJBPM) tweeted picture showing a K-9 unit at the site.


MRT Corp said no members of the public were involved in the incident as there was no access to the site and investigations have commenced to determine the cause of the incident.

"All work along Package V1 where the incident occurred has been suspended until further notice. The work package contractor for Package V1 is Syarikat Muhibbah Perniagaan dan Pembinaan Sdn Bhd," it said.

MRT Corp chief executive officer Datuk Wira Azhar Abdul Hamid, who was at the site, expressed deep regret over the incident.

"Although investigations are underway, MRT Corp assumes full responsibility for the incident. Once investigations are completed, action on those responsible will be taken," he said.

Selangor Fire and Rescue department operations director Mohd Sani Harul said they were alerted of the incident at about 9.46pm.

A K-9 unit was also spotted at the site of the incident, assisting rescue efforts.

The Star

Published: Tuesday August 19, 2014 MYT 3:52:00 PM 
Updated: Tuesday August 19, 2014 MYT 4:33:50 PM

MRT Corp CEO quits over fatal incident at construction site


BY D. KANYAKUMARI

PETALING JAYA: MRT Corp CEO Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid has resigned over Monday night's construction site accident in Kota Damansara that claimed three lives.

"As of tomorrow, I am no longer the CEO," he told a press conference at the site here Tuesday.

Azhar said he had always been very strict over safety measures at MRT sites but such incidents had occurred over and over again.

"I have done my best, but I have evidently failed and therefore will be handing over my duties.

"I was told that some security measures were not followed by the sub-contractors and if that really is the case, I will make sure MRT Corp never works with them again," he said.

He said that despite his departure from the company, he would see the case through and ensure that the families of the deceased be given justice.

Three Bangladeshi workers were killed when a concrete span at the site collapsed at 8.30pm.

Meanwhile, it is learnt that MRT Corp's stakeholder relations and land management director Haris Fadzilah Hassan would take over until the Government appoints a new CEO.

---------------------------

Disclaimer : This is an unprofessional opinion, so don't count on it.
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Now when the span (connected box girders) being lifted up and erected - PRIOR to construction of parapet walls, the span should be 'LOCKED' (keywords : plinth, grout, bearing) first on the piers. 

The weather was fine (not inclement). So, the theory of ground movement is not possible at all. 

The installation of piers with the box girders concrete span were fine in the Southern part of the project. (I've seen them)

Perhaps the issues are not about the load or engineering or even design or concrete strength or whatsover, 

It is the issue of workflow breakdown - the process is also related to previous monitoring - via audit and inspection - are there any records that proper inspections (and tests - ITP) have been executed at the affected area?

Perhaps the issues are also not really about safety, it is about supervision of the implementation of the methodology and process (method statement)

I think the CEO should NOT resign (technically he's not responsible until proven guilty), the investigation should be more thorough on the issues of supervision by the Project Delivery Partner (MMC Gamuda), the C & S Consultant and the Work Package Contractor.

My guess is only about the process. Which should start from "A" - lift up, "B" - erect and lock, C - "construction of Parapet Walls"

There must a way to determine that after Process 'A' - MUST be followed by Process 'B' - it looks like Process 'A' - OK but straight jumped to Process 'C'. (the span will become flimsy - not stable, once the activity of Parapet Walls construction started, the span became imbalance because (my guess) it is not properly 'locked' although 'erected')

Thus the word 'dislodged' is right! How can it be 'dislodged' on the first place if it is properly erected and 'locked'?

Friday, July 04, 2014

Time for fireworks: Dow tops 17,000!

By Melvin Backman  @ CNNMoneyInvest July 3, 2014: 1:19 PM ET
 
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
 
U.S. stock markets closed at 1 p.m. Thursday, but they got the fireworks going early. The Dow finally hit 17,000!Many see it as just a psychological threshold, but it's a level U.S. stocks have never seen before, and it comes a mere six months after the Dow crossed 16,000.
 


All three major indexes closed higher Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at an all-time high of around 17,068 (up nearly 1.3% for the week). The S&P 500 also closed at a record level, hitting 1,985 for the first time. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rounded up the week up 2%.
 
Here are the highlights of a great week:
 
Jobs Bonanza: A strong June job reports drove the optimism in the stock market. The U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, down from 6.3% in May. That was much better than economists or Wall Street expected.
 
Treasuries react to jobs report: The bond market is moving to sell after the jobs report and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's comments yesterday that the central bank will not use interest rates to pop any potential bubbles in the markets. Bond yields are up to 2.64%, a sign of the improving economy.
 
Gold investors area bit skittish, with the precious metal's price dropping nearly 0.75% to around $1,321 an ounce.
 
Bow Wow -- PetSmart stock spikes: PetSmart (PETM) shares were howling at the moon, up 12.5% after hedge fund Jana Partners announced a 9.9% stake with intentions of exploring a sale of the company.
 
In other moves, embattled clothiers American Apparel (APP) and Lululemon (LULU) traded higher. Shares in the two are finished nearly 5% and almost 3% higher, respectively. There's a lot of news around American Apparel, where Reuters reports that former CEO Dov Charney has handed off his stake to hedge fund Standard General. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that former Lululemon chair and founder Chip Wilson is trying to take the company private.
 
Intel (INTC, Tech30) shares are up 20% so far this year, making it the second best performing stock in the Dow.
 
PCs aren't dead! Intel is soaring

Independence Dog: It's also fun to note that Nathan's Famous (NATH) hot dogs, sponsor of Coney Island's annual July 4 hot dog-eating contest, is a publicly traded company. The stock is down slightly Thursday, but it's up over 7% so far in 2014 and has truly been a "top dog" in recent years.

Overseas Markets: European markets are were higher in afternoon trading, with the FTSE 100 up more than 0.7%. Asian markets were mixed, and Australia's stock market jumped a nice 0.7%. 

New tools to fight tuberculosis and other chronic infections

News from European Commission - Research and Innovation

© sudok1 - Fotolia.com

A groundbreaking European research project focused on tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment has developed potentially life-saving novel drug candidates and new diagnostics for the condition.

TB is one of the world’s most persistent diseases, and even today, despite medical advances, it still claims around 1.45 million lives worldwide each year. A key reason TB is still a menace is inadequate diagnosis and the ability of the TB-pathogen to adapt to antibiotics. Its drug resistance is a public health problem that threatens progress made in TB care and control worldwide.

The project, NOPERSIST, applied advances in molecular biology and the sequencing of TB genomes (the genetic material of an organism) to better understand the disease and other infections such as HIV.

The research team used novel strategies that could lead to efficient and accurate TB diagnosis and treatment of other persistent infections. These results include the world's first blood test for active TB; a rapid, three-hour test for bovine TB; a novel drug cocktail candidate for multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB); a new drug candidate for TB; and molecular tests for diseases in pigs. NOPERSIST team also successfully developed a novel adjuvant – or vaccine booster - that could be widely used to create all kinds of vaccines, not only for TB.

The project’s breakthroughs are even more exceptional given that diagnoses of these infections are extremely difficult and time-consuming, and no efficient, cost effective tests have been available until now.

“NOPERSIST has been unusually innovative which is evident by the fact that five European patents have been filed out of the project,” says NOPERSIST’s project coordinator Prof. Mahavir Singh, from Lionex, a biotech company based in Brunswick, Germany.

Prof. Singh explains that much of the success was down to the application of medical advances in molecular biology and the availability of new information generated after sequencing the TB genome.

“Molecular biology and immunology helped significantly in discovering and developing novel biomarkers as a diagnostic test, as well as a novel adjuvant,” he says. “In addition, genome sequencing helped partners focus on veterinary diseases in cattle and swine. Tests based on genome sequencing results will shortly be developed for some veterinary diseases.”

Prof. Singh adds that with a diagnostic market of TB worth nearly €1 billion, NOPERSIST’s new leads could bring novel products on the market, delivering a major competitive advantage to European industry. “The new active TB tests have an excellent chance of becoming the major diagnostic tool for TB,” he says. Further research planned under the follow-up project, Demo-NOPERSIST, is expected to bring the diagnostic products on the market within the next 2-3 years.

Prof. Singh believes the project team has not merely learnt about the mechanisms of drug resistance in TB and improved current techniques for rapid detection, but it has also stimulated the exploration of new targets for drug activity and drug development. 

“NOPERSIST project was a good example of how a motivated research team performing a highly ambitious project with a small budget can really achieve its objectives, and have significant social and economic impact on human health in Europe and elsewhere,” he concludes.

Nearly nine million people around the world became sick with TB in 2011, according to the US-based Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Drug-resistant TB - which occurs when the bacteria develops the ability to withstand antibiotic attack - is difficult and costly to treat. It can be fatal, and an estimated 650,000 people worldwide have MDR-TB.


Note :

Project details

Project acronym: NOPERSIST
Participants: Germany (Coordinator), Sweden, UK, Switzerland, Hungary, Italy, Belgium, Spain
FP7 Proj. N° 232188
Total costs: € 1 714 410EU contribution: € 1 319 990
Duration: January 2010 - December 2012

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC MONITOR - WORLD BANK

BOOSTING TRADE COMPETITIVENESS

Following the review of near-term developments and outlook, the thematic chapter of this Economic Monitor analyzes structural trends in trade competitiveness.

Trade competitiveness is measured as Malaysia’s ability to grow its exports and the domestic value-added embodied within them, leveraging foreign demand and knowledge to support its transformation to a high income nation.

Nearly 60 percent of value-added produced in Malaysia was ultimately consumed by foreigners in 2009 – one of the highest shares in the world.

The share of Malaysia’s GDP consumed in foreign markets includes the value-added of exporting firms and also of suppliers to export-oriented industries. Thus the actual significance of external demand to the Malaysian economy is higher than it appears from net exports (22 percent of GDP) or the output from externally-oriented industries (38 percent of GDP).


The export engine appears to have been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis.

The share of exports of goods and services in Malaysia’s GDP declined by nearly 30 percentage points between 2005 and 2013. Unlike Thailand, Vietnam and Korea, which saw market shares expand, Malaysia’s share shrunk from 1.35 to 1.22 percent in that period. However, Malaysian exports have included a higher portion of domestic value-added, mitigating the impact of the decline in gross shares.

The decline in exports has been concentrated in Malaysia’s core export product segment – E&E products.

E&E exports as a share of GDP declined from about 38 percent between 2002 and 2004 to 18 percent in 2013, and Malaysia’s market share in the period declined from 5.25 percent to 3.74 percent of global E&E exports. Meanwhile, exports of commodities, and commodity-related manufactures such as petrochemicals expanded, but not enough to compensate the decline in E&E exports.



The domestic value-added of Malaysian E&E exports is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages.

Malaysia remains an integral part of the E&E global value chain, but at 44 percent the share of valueadded  in exports is relatively low. This is partly due to limited domestic linkages. Compared to other countries, the contribution from domestic intermediaries to the value-added of exports is only 7 percent in Malaysia compared to 31 percent in Korea. This finding is supported by analysis of enterprise survey data, which finds that multinationals in Malaysia source less than 40 percent of their inputs from domestic firms compared to 46 percent in Vietnam and 82 percent in China.

Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential.

Malaysia has few services-exporting firms and at 12 percent of GDP services exports are below what would  be expected for a country at its level of income.

‘Behind the borders’ restrictions hinders export growth and limits linkages between domestic providers and export-oriented industries.

Although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of services  sectors, many are still relatively restrictive as measured by the World Bank’s Services Trade. Restrictiveness index and assessment of the burden of non-tariff measures. Professional and transport services are more restrictive on average than most countries in East Asia for example. A restrictive domestic environment reduces incentives for exporting, and for exporting firms to buy more domestic value-added. Barriers are not limited to ownership restrictions, but extend to licensing and regulations that limit domestic competition.




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