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ECONOMIC, EFFECTIVE, PROMPT - NIK ZAFRI


MY EMPLOYERS AND CLIENTELLES

BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI



NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID, CONSULTANT/TRAINER
NIK ZAFRI'S CURRICULUM VITAE (ENGLISH)

Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com

* Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Diploma (Management), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences(local/international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant. Affiliations :- Council Member of Gerson Lehrman Group NY, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Management, Malaysian Occupational Safety and Health Professionals Association, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSAS 18000 (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000:2004 and Construction Quality Assessment System (CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore)

* Possesses 20 years experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK) etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore), LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd. and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients were Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia, Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan, The Institution of Engineers Malaysia, Corporate HQ of RHB, NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor, Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia, State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan, Hidrological Department KL, Asahi Kluang Johor, Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor, Consortium PANZANA, Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor, Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor, Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor, Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor, MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor, UITM Shah Alam Selangor, Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable (ODM/OEM for Astro), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd, ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group), Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd., Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd.,Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB, Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia, T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd.LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd. (Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (C & S, Geotech), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT MSPR8 - Internal Audit (Construction) & Awareness Workshop ISO 9001:2015 for the Construction Industry, Amiosh Resources - Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, Amiosh Resources - Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design and Final Report etc.

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc.

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ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"

SEO Marketers..STOP disturbing me. I've listed my name Nik Zafri on every major search engine since 1999 - where were you then?









‪#‎TPPA‬ (1) - Nik Zafri

Apabila #TPPA dikuatkuasakan kelak, Malaysia perlu menilai dan memulakan pelaksanaannya dengan memastikan penyelesaian mengenai apa jua masalah yang timbul dalam konteks perniagaan, sektor kerajaan yang terbabit dan yang paling penting orang awam (rakyat)

Setiap sektor kerajaan samada di peringkat Kementerian, Jabatan dan Agensi yang akan memainkan peranan langsung harus dijelaskan tugas dan tanggungjawab masing-masing yang perlu dipenuhi, cara-cara dan proses membuat sesuatu keputusan dan peraturan operasi yang tertera dalam Perjanjian berkenaan. Semuanya ini memerlukan urustadbir yang baik terutamanya aspek ketelusan.

TPPA juga memerlukan laporan perancangan dan perkembangan mengenai pelaksanaan langkah-langkah yang telah dirunding dan dipersetujui sepanjang tempoh transisi. Tempoh ini juga harus menyokong objektif pembangunan TPPA dengan memastikan Malaysia benar-benar mampu membina upaya ke atas elemen-elemen penting sebelum dilaksanakan.

Dengan adanya laporan pelaksanaan TPPA, Malaysia harus memantau perkembangannya, menyelesaikan masalah dan memastikan kapasiti bina upayanya berhasil.

Monday, March 21, 2016

KAEDAH ALGORITMA PEMBELAJARAN DIPANTAU DALAM MENGESAN MANIPULASI PASARAN SAHAM – SIRI PENGENALAN



Walaupun terdapat maklumbalas dan tindakan yang pantas oleh pihak berkuasa serta terdapatnya pindaan dalam undang-undang, 
manipulasi pasaran adalah antara kebimbangan utama pelabur pasaran sekuriti/saham.

Kaedah mengenalpasti unsur penipuan dalam pasaran saham yang ada pada masakini adalah bergantung kepada undang-undang, peraturan dan kepakaran. Ianya berdasarkan pendekatan “atas ke bawah” yang menggunakan set corak yang dikenali dan ambang (threshold) yang telah ditakrif terlebih dahulu.

Data pasaran seperti harga dan volume saham (jumlah saham/kontrak yang didagangkan) dipantau menggunakan peraturan yang berkaitan dan notifikasi red-flag. Kemudian sebarang transaksi dalam tempoh pengesanan akan disiasat secara lanjut bagi mengenalpasti sebarang aktiviti penipuan.

Cara ini mempunyai dua kelemahan :

i) Mengesan tempoh yang luarbiasa yang tidak berkaitan dengan simtom (contohnya skim manipulatif yang tidak dikenali)

ii) Kesesuaiannya dengan keadaan/suasana pasaran yang berubah dengan pantas, transaksi data yang tinggi kerana kenaikan jumlah pelabur serta syarikat/saham yang disenaraikan). Ini menuntut pindaan terhadap undang-undang untuk memantau data yang begitu luas dan amat mencabar sekali.
  
Pasaran sekuriti sedang berubah dengan drastik. Suasana ini berpotensi mendedahkan loopholes  yang akan digunakan oleh pedagang untuk meraih keuntungan.

Pihak berkuasa mungkin memerlukan sejenis modul dan algorithma bagi menyokong pengenalpastian aktiviti manipulasi pasaran.

Secara amnya, penipuan saham adalah merujuk kepada kaitan antara tawaran dan jualan saham contohnya :


a) Pelaburan Hasil yang Tinggi (High-Yield) – merujuk kepada pulangan yang dijamin berdasarkan “risiko rendah” atau “tiada risiko langsung” dalam pelaburan instrumen sekuriti.

Penipuan ini bermula dengan “broker” mengambil peluang ke atas kepercayaan pelabur dan mendakwa pulangan yang tinggi di atas modal mereka. Pelaburan Hasil yang Tinggi dapat dikesan menerusi Skim Piramid, Skim Ponzi, Skim Perbankan, Skim Wang Pendahuluan, Komoditi (Forex dan Logam Berharga) dan Nota Promisori.

b) Penyelewengan Broker – Skim ini melibatkan broker bertindak melanggar undang-undang bagi mendapatkan keuntungan daripada pelaburan klien. Biasanya ini melibatkan perdagangan yang tidak sah dan penipuan dokumen.

c) Manipulasi Pasaran – Skim ini melibatkan individu atau sekumpulan manusia yang mengganggu-gugat pasaran yang teratur dan adil bagi mendapat keuntungan. Cara yang dilakukan biasanya melibatkan percubaan mengawal harga pasaran. Faktor inilah yang paling ditakuti pelabur.

Menggunakan pendekatan pelombongan data (data-mining), sekurang-kurangnya 5 kaedah dapat dilakukan.

a) Mengenali Corak (Pattern Recognition) – penggunaan kaedah ini adalah sama dengan melihat pada tren (trend) yang menimbulkan syak bahawa aktiviti penipuan sedang berlaku iaitu :

i) mengesan pedagang yang tatalakunya (behaviour) menampakkan aktiviti penipuan,
ii) mengesan saham yang berkaitan dengan aktiviti penipuan berkenaan,

Sebagai contoh, aktiviti berikut mungkin menampakkan unsur penipuan :

a)    Kecairan, pulangan dan volatiliti adalah lebih tinggi untuk saham yang dimanipulasikan berbanding dengan sampel yang dikawal.
b)   Keuntungan juga dapat dicapai dengan manipulasi harga saham bagi deflate harga (jualan jangka pendek – short-selling) tetapi kebanyakan pakar manipulasi akan cuba untuk menaikkan harga saham,
c)    Waktu Tutup (Closing Hours), Suku Berakhir, dan Tahun Berakhir adalah “ruang bagi manipulasi berlaku”
d)   Kenaikan drastik dalam volume dagangan dan volatiliti pulangan selalunya akan diikuti oleh manipulasi harga (dalam banyak kes)

Apapun, kaedah mengenalpasti corak adalah antara cara terbaik di mana pihak berkuasa dapat membekukan dagangan saham berkenaan.

Namun, proses pelombongan data secara talian dan real-time diperlukan dalam kes ini. Set datanya dalam konteks ini melibatkan secara data dagangan untuk setiap akaun pedagang atau setiap saham dan set corak/tren yang dikenalpasti sebagai penipuan (dilabelkan)

b) Pengesanan Outlier  - mengesan pemerhatian yang tidak konsisten dengan baki data. Ini akan membantu dalam mengenalpasti corak penipuan yang tidak dikenali. Pengesanan yang efektif dapat dilakukan dengan melihat Pancang (spike) berdasarkan keadaan pasaran dan bukannya menggunakan Ambang (threshold) untuk menapis Pancang.

Seperti grup pertama, kaedah ini dapat dilakukan ke atas pedagang dan saham yang didagangkan. Set Data yang diperlukan ialah maklumat mengenai sejarah perdagangan oleh pedagang atau saham yang berkaitan.

Pengesanan anomali akan dapat dicapai menggunakan kaedah pengelompokan (clustering) dan tidak memerlukan data yang dilabel.

Contoh senario : Data diwakili oleh variable statistik (min dan varian) untuk pembelian dan jualan pada tempoh yang tetap (fixed).  Satu parameter akan ditetapkan yang menerangkan jumlah objek dalam peer group dan kawalan ke atas sensitiviti model. Satu objek sasaran akan menentukan ahli dari peer group samada ahli-ahli peer group adalah objek yang paling mirip kepada objek sasaran.

Pada setiap tetingkap masa (contohnya setiap 5 minggu) peer group ini akan diringkaskan bagi mengenalpasti sentroid peer group. Kemudiannya, jarak ahli peer group dengan sentroid peer group akan dikira menggunakan statistik t dan objek yang “lari” daripada peer akan dikutip sebagai outlier.

Akaun dagangan akan dikaitkan dengan objek yang yang dianggap sebagai pedagang yang dicurigai di mana tatalakunya berbeza dengan peer yang lain.

c) Induksi Peraturan (Rules Induction) – mengestrak peraturan yang dapat diperiksa dan digunakan oleh auditor dan pihak berkuasa pasaran saham. Set data yang diperlukan ialah maklumat sejarah dagangan untuk setiap akaun pedagang yang dilabelkan sebagai “disyaki aktiviti penipuan”. Juga ekstrakkan peraturan yang mengenalpasti corak dan ketidakaturan (irregularity) yang tidak dikenali menggunakan data yang tidak dilabelkan (kaedah pembelajaran yang tidak dipantau)

Contoh senario : induksi peraturan menggunakan pelombongan data secara temporal.

Pertama, data siri masa dibersihkan (pra-pemprosesan) menerusi dua langkah :

i)       Penentuan Tempoh Seterusnya (subsequent) dan
ii)     Ektrak corak temporal menggunakan algoritma pengelompokan (min EM dan K)

Juga atrribut data yang relevan dipilih secara manual atau menggunakan pemilihan atribut algoritma.

Kedua, algoritma induksi peraturan (contohnya AQ15) untuk menentukan “if-then”. Satu suasana akan dibentuk bagi menggunakan kaedah yang dicadangkan dan diuji menggunakan set data yang mempunyai data harga temporal (harga, volume, tinggi, rendah, secara keseluruhan 13 indeks trend) untuk 9 saham dari negara X selama 6 bulan.

Keputusan menjual atau membeli setiap saham ditentukan menerusi kaedah pengelompokan dan digunakan untuk menguji ke atas saham yang berbeza. Hasil kajian menunjukkan kaedah Ekstrak Corak adalah yang terbaik di mana ianya melangkaui prestasi garisan asas (baseline)

d) Analisa Jaringan Sosial (Social Network Analysis) – mengesan akaun pedagang yang dikaitkan dengan manipulasi pasaran. Set data yang diperlukan juga maklumat sejarah dagangan untuk setiap akaun pedagang. Di sini, sumber data tambahan seperti sejarah pekerjaan pedagang dan perhubungannya diperlukan untuk disatukan dalam dataset ini. (contohnya – mendapatkan akses kepada mana-mana depositori pendaftaran pusat yang mempunyai maklumat mengenai broker yang berdaftar)

Cara pelombongan data secara tradisi menggunakan klasifikasi, pengelompokan dan peraturan perkaitan selalunya mempertimbangkan sampel poin data yang berasingan (independent). Cara ini tidak dapat leverage kaitan antara sampel set data yang distrukturkan secara komprehensif dan heterogen

Analisa Jaringan Sosial dapat mewakili penstrukturan data seumpama ini di mana nodnya adalah berkaitan dengan sampel data samada objek atau individu, dan sudut yang mewakili perhubungan dan pergantungan sesama objek. Pemetaan, kefahaman, analisa dan mengukur interaksi di jaringan dipanggil Analisa Jaringan Sosial.

Ianya berkesan untuk mencari korelasi yang menandakan berlakunya penipuan dalam pasaran saham bermula dengan perubahan peristiwa (event) dalam pasaran ke bentuk graf (pra-pemprosesan)

Selain itu, analisa ini juga dapat mengesan broker yang bersubahat dalam :

a)    Inflate/Deflate harga saham dengan meletakkan pesanan yang telah diaturkan terlebih dahulu dengan broker-broker lain diikuti dengan aktiviti manipulasi volume,

b)   Memindahkan saham antara akaun bagi mengelak cukai,

c) Mendapat kredibiliti dalam pasaran dengan transaksi jumlah yang tinggi.

Ada yang menggabungkan analisa jaringan sosial dengan kaedah visualisasi interaktif bagi mengenalpasti akaun yang dicurigai.

Antara aktiviti berbentuk penipuan ialah :

a) Perdagangan Kitaran (Circular) – konsisten dalam pembelian dan penjualan volume saham dalam jumlah yang sama samada belian/jualan tinggi atau rendah,

 b) Indikator Primer/Sekunder – menanda akaun yang rendah beliannya dan tinggi jualannya. Jaringan sentraliti akan membantu mencari akaun primer (utama), fungsi ‘f’ akan dikira untuk setiap vertex yang mewakili saiz akaun dan membandingkan harga transaksi dengan harga purata transaksi terdahulu,

  c) Sudut Indikator Utama : Memindahkan stok dari satu akaun ke satuakaun yang lain yang berlaku bila sudut (transaksi) muncul beberapa kali pada 2 vertices.

Analisa Jaringan Sosial terbukti berkesan dalam mencari aktiviti subahat dalam memanipulasikan pasaran dan kaedah bagi memantau interaksi pedagang di dalam pasaran.

e) Visualisasi – ini bukan terhad kepada carta semata-mata di mana auditor perlu berinteraksi dengan data pasaran dan mencari corak yang menampakkan penipuan.

Visualisasi terhadap data pasaran adalah sama pentingnya dengan pemantauan secara real-time dan penyiasatan ‘luar-talian’ (offline)

Kaedah visualisasi akan membantu auditor untuk mengenalpasti aktiviti yang disyaki penipuan dalam transaksi pedagang dan saham yang didagangkan.

Ini dilakukan dengan melihat pada corak di dalam data atau maklumat yang belum disedia untuk dibezakan (discernable). Apa yang diperlukan ialah sejenis kerangka analitikal visual yang menggabungkan treemap 3 Dimensi untuk pemantauan pasaran dan visualisasi berasaskan Tatalaku menggunakan Analisa Jaringan Sosial bagi memantau aktiviti broker.

Dalam Visualisasi 3 Dimensi, setiap sel mewakili satu saham dan saiz sel adalah proportional kepada pemodalan pasalan dan kod warna sel menunjukkan perubahan harga (warna “hijau” untuk “harga naik” dan “merah” untuk “harga turun”)

Ini akan melahirkan satu peralatan yang memantau secara real time dengan tangguhan 15 minit untuk aliran perdagangan asas (harga dan volume)

Keterangan dagangan akan dibandingkan dengan satu set parameter dan pengawasan akan dilakukan ke atas sebarang keluarbiasaan. Analisa jaringan dagangan bertujuan untuk mendedahkan struktur sosial sesama pedagang dan mengenalpasti corak dagangan yang luarbiasa. Nod-nod pula mewakili pedagang, kawasan sekitar setiap node mewakili nilai dagangan dan sudut berarah (directional edges) menandakan aliran dan keseimbangan dagangan.

Satu pangkalan data yang merekodkan setiap corak yang berpotensi ada elemen penipuan akan digunakan sebagai rujukan dan membandingkan peristiwa dalam jaringan dagangan serta mengenalpasti aktiviti yang boleh menimbulkan syak.


Kecairan, pulangan dan volatiliti adalah lebih tinggi untuk saham yang telah dimanipulasi. Oleh itu, mencartakan parameter secara parallel dengan alignment masa yang sama akan membantu penguatkuasaan bagi mengenalpasti corak dan tren yang boleh disyaki. 

Sunday, March 13, 2016

MENGENALPASTI, MENILAI DAN MENGAWAL RISIKO DAN SUASANA BERBAHAYA - Pengenalan asas(Keselamatan Kerja) - Nik Zafri

Mengenalpasti suasana berbahaya (Hazard) dan penilaian risiko melibatkan kesinambungan maklumat secara kritikal bagi membuat sesuatu keputusan. Proses ini dapat membantu mengenalpasti punca berlakunya kemalangan (mengenalpasti suasana merbahaya - Risk Identification) , kemungkinan berlakunya kemalangan (penilaian risiko) dan apakah akibat-akibat yang berpotensi dari kemalangan berkenaan. Selain itu ianya juga dapat membantu untuk mengambil langkah-langkah yang sepatutnya bagi mencegah dan menghalang kemalangan berkenaan secara proaktif (mengawal – control)
Nota : Versi terkini ISO 9000 (ISO 9001:2015) boleh dijadikan asas rujukan di mana ianya menekankan bahawa penilaian risiko boleh dikenalpasti semasa fasa Perancangan di mana peralatan seperti Analisa SWOT dan PDCA boleh digunakan untuk mengenalpasti Potensi Risiko berdasarkan pengalaman yang direkodkan dalam sesi audit, pemeriksaan, penilaian risiko terdahulu (jika ada) dan mesyuarat semakan semula pengurusan.
Terdapat banyak cara untuk mengenalpasti suasana berbahaya dan menjalankan penilaian risiko. Teknik yang digunakan adalah bergantung kepada suasana tempat kerja. Namun apa yang penting ialah, kerjasama antara pihak pengurusan dan kakitangannya amatlah mustahak bagi mencapai penilaian suasana berbahaya yang berkesan dan efisyen.
Kemalangan yang berat biasanya jarang berlaku. Ini kerana sudah ramai pihak pengurusan, kakitangannya telah sedar mengenai kepentingan menjaga keselamatan dan kesihatan pekerjaan di tempat kerja.
Walaubagaimanapun, kemalangan pada kekerapan yang rendah kadangkala bukan bermaksud tiada potensi kemalangan itu tidak akan berlaku. Biasanya, dalam keadaan yang tidak disangka-sangka, ianya boleh berlaku, ini kerana sesebuah organisasi yang beranggapan tempat kerja mereka selamat akan cenderung kepada sifat mengambil mudah.
Di sinilah kepentingan pengenalpastian potensi kemalangan, penilaian risiko dan langkah-langkah kawalan boleh diambil bagi mencegah insiden dan kemalangan secara proaktif.


Sistem pengenalpastian potensi suasana berbahaya dan penilaian risiko perlu melibatkan :

a)    Mengenalpasti operasi dan rekabentuk yang berpotensi menampakkan kelemahan – contohnya jika ianya beroperasi melebihi masa atau rekabentuk yang berkali-kali disemak.

b)    Berfikir di luar kotak berdasarkan pengalaman

c) Memastikan langkah-langkah kawalan yan sediada termasuk prosedur standard operasi yang digunakan masih relevan dengan proses (contohnya, jika ada teknologi baru, perlukah prosedur itu dipinda dan perlukah langkah-langkah kawalan ditambahkan untuk disesuaikan dengan suasana yang baru?

d) Berkongsi pengalaman dengan organisasi lain – biasanya menerusi penyertaan dalam seminar, persidangan, kursus dan bengkel mengenai penilaian risiko.

Antara cabaran yang biasa dihadapi :

a)  Pengurusan masa yang diperlukan untuk mengenalpasti suasana berbahaya dan potensi kemalangan yang akan berlaku jika tiada kawalan dilakukan.

b) Perlunya kombinasi kepakaran dalam teknik-teknik mengenalpasti suasana berbahaya dan kawalan risiko (HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assesment and Risk Control, HAZID (Hazard Identification Techniques), HEMP (Hazard and Effect Management Process), HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Studies) Hal ini boleh dilakukan dengan perkongsian maklumat di antara satu organisasi dengan satu organisasi yang lain, perkhidmatan perunding atau pakar dari luar untuk membuat penilaian bebas tanpa sebarang kecenderungan dan pengalaman yang direkodkan (di sini data sangat diperlukan)

c)    Pengetahuan dan pengalaman mengenai tempat/premis/tapak kerja dan teknik yang diperlukan.

d)    Memastikan mereka yang menjalankan tugas penilaian, audit mahupun pemeriksaan adalah mereka yang bertauliah.

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

PERJANJIAN PERKONGSIAN TRANS PASIFIK (TPPA) - OLEH NIK ZAFRI

Artikel ini akan dikemaskini hampir setiap hari



1) Penyelesaian Masalah, Laporan Perkembangan dan Peranan


Apabila TPPA dikuatkuasakan kelak, Malaysia perlu menilai dan memulakan pelaksanaannya dengan memastikan penyelesaian mengenai apa jua masalah yang timbul dalam konteks perniagaan, sektor kerajaan yang terbabit dan yang paling penting orang awam (rakyat)


Setiap sektor kerajaan samada di peringkat Kementerian, Jabatan dan Agensi yang akan memainkan peranan langsung harus dijelaskan tugas dan tanggungjawab masing-masing yang perlu dipenuhi, cara-cara dan proses membuat sesuatu keputusan dan peraturan operasi yang tertera dalam Perjanjian berkenaan. Semuanya ini memerlukan urustadbir yang baik terutamanya aspek ketelusan.


TPPA juga memerlukan laporan perancangan dan perkembangan mengenai pelaksanaan langkah-langkah yang telah dirunding dan dipersetujui sepanjang tempoh transisi. Tempoh ini juga harus menyokong objektif pembangunan TPPA dengan memastikan Malaysia benar-benar mampu membina upaya ke atas elemen-elemen penting sebelum dilaksanakan.


Dengan adanya laporan pelaksanaan TPPA, Malaysia harus memantau perkembangannya, menyelesaikan masalah dan memastikan kapasiti bina upayanya berhasil.

2) Impot, Ekspot, Persaingan, Peluang Kerja, Pengiktirafan dan Tariff


TPPA perlu mampu menjadi platform kepada tenaga kerja dan perniagaan di Malaysia supaya kita mampu mengekspot barangan tempatan ke negara-negara anggotanya. Imbangan perlu dilakukan supaya ianya tidak menjadi impot sehala kepada kita semata-mata.

Di sini pentingnya kualiti produk dan perkhidmatan kita mestilah benar-benar diterima dan diiktiraf antarabangsa serta tidak menjadi mangsa 'sekatan dagangan' atau 'pemboikotan' dengan alasan yang tidak munasabah.
(ini kerana terdapat khabar angin mengenai terdapat penduduk negara anggota seperti tidak mengendahkan FTA - maka TPPA perlu menampakkan imej yang jauh lebih baik dari FTA)
Ini kerana Malaysia telah lama mengamalkan Pengurusan Kualiti Menyeluruh (TQM) malah ISO 9001 (2000, 2008 dan terkini 2015) - (sekadar menyebut beberapa contoh) juga melibatkan Amerika Syarikat di dalam Jawatankuasa Teknikal ISO (ISOTC) nya dengan adanya amalan Pengurusan Risiko (termasuk pengurusan risiko bencana banjir - yang juga merupakan elemen penting dalam 'bina upaya')
Produk Halal tempatan juga mestilah diiktiraf kerana ianya juga didasarkan kepada amalan pengeluaran yang baik (GMP) dan HACCP yang juga sistem asalnya diterajui oleh Amerika Syarikat sebagaimana mereka mengiktiraf produk Kosher.
Tingkatkan lebih banyak peluang kerja bukan sahaja di sektor pengilangan tetapi juga usaha gigih perlu dilakukan untuk prospek mereka yang bekerja dari rumah supaya golongan pencen, tidak berupaya, surirumah dsb. benar-benar mendapat manfaat dari perkhidmatan di rumah termasuk akses internet yang lebih baik dari sekarang.
Pengecualian tariff atau cukai (contohnya seumpama ‘taraf perintis’) atau pada kadar yang munasabah di negara-negara asing juga perlu lebih telus bagi memastikan pengeluar, pembekal perkhidmatan, petani, penternak malah perniagaan berskala kecil tempatan dapat bersaing dengan sihat serta terdapat satu bentuk kuota disiapkan untuk mereka dan terdapat data yang jelas mengenai golongan sasaran di luar negara.
Tanpa adanya data yang jelas, maka akan timbul kesukaran mengenai "apa yang perlu dilakukan" (What to do), "Di mana perlu dilakukan" (Where to do), "Bila perlu dilakukan" (When to do), "Bagaimana hendak dilakukan" (How to do), "Kepada siapa" (to who)
Apa yang penting, perniagaan berskala kecil termasuk 'cottage industry' perlu diberikan ruang untuk berkembang kepada tahan Industri Kecil dan Sederhana dan tidak mustahil ianya menjadi industri yang besar dan berkembang pesat.

Bersambung...

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

FLOOD MITIGATION - WHAT'S THE CONCLUSION? - NIK ZAFRI

Personally and professionally speaking, I still do not fully “understand” the never ending problem of flood especially in the East Coast of Malaysia.

(Source : http://d.ibtimes.co.uk) 

As a person who is also having a minor 'stake' in flood mitigation program (which I consider a great honour) I've witnessed the superb knowledge, skills and experience of my fellow professionals and experts in the fields supported fully by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) and the team of consulting engineers appointed by them. 




The Terms of Reference (TOR or Design Specifications/Briefs) provided by DID is very clear even 'dare' to take a step forward by introducing the need of a comprehensive Flood Risk Management Plan (FRMP) which I am personally involved in including the introduction of Flood Risk Map. (read my lips carefully...not "Flood Hazard Map" but "Flood RISK Map") - any sample Mr. Nik? Sorry...Confidential!


The comprehensive FRMP is the FIRST in Malaysia despite the country has yet a specific Flood Risk Act (also which I have proposed to the Government – hopefully to be passed in Parliament soon)
The proposed Act for Malaysia should be something like this sample :

Introductory Text

Part 1 Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management

1. Key concepts and definitions

1.“Flood” and “coastal erosion”
2.“Risk”
3.“Risk management”
4.“Flood risk management function”
5.“Coastal erosion risk management function”
6.Other definitions

2. Strategies, co-operation and funding

7.National flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy: (Malaysia)
8.National flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy:(States)
9.Local flood risk management strategies: East
10.Local flood risk management strategies: West
11.Effect of national and local strategies: North
12.Effect of national and local strategies: South
13.Co-operation and arrangements
14.Power to request information
15.Civil sanctions
16.Funding
17.Levies

3. Supplemental powers and duties

18.DOE: reports
19.Local authorities: investigations
20.Ministerial directions
21.Lead local authorities: duty to maintain a register

4. Regional Flood and Coastal Committees

22.Establishment
23.Consultation and consent
24.Membership
25.Money
26.“The Minister”
5. General
27.Sustainable development
28.Power to make further amendments
29.Restructuring
30.Designation of features
31.Amendment of other Acts

Part 2 Miscellaneous

32.Sustainable drainage
33.Reservoirs
34.Special administration
35.Provision of infrastructure
36.Water use: temporary bans
37.Civil sanctions
38.Incidental flooding or coastal erosion: DOE
39.Incidental flooding or coastal erosion: local authorities
40.Building regulations: flood resistance
41.Compulsory works orders
42.Agreements on new drainage systems
43.Drainage: concessionary charges for community groups
44.Social tariffs
45.Water and sewerage charges: non-owner occupiers
46.Abolition of Overlapping Committees

Part 3 General

47.Pre-consolidation amendments
48.Subordinate legislation
49.Technical provision

SCHEDULES

SCHEDULE 1 Risk Management: Designation of Features
SCHEDULE 2 Risk Management: Amendment of Other Acts
SCHEDULE 3 Sustainable Drainage
SCHEDULE 4 Reservoirs
SCHEDULE 5 Special Administration



And yet, some parties keep emerging and simply pointing their fingers towards DID when it comes to flood problems. (Remember, there are still other stakeholders as well – check your facts) With all due respect, sometimes I wonder if these finger pointers have any experience involving themselves in DID flood mitigation projects.


First a disclaimer, I am neither working nor instructed by DID or any party to write this article – just to make "a wake up call" and not some "rude awakening"
Let's talk a bit about what I am involved in - been assigned to prepare the Risk Management Plan in 4 parters

Part 1 – Preliminary (mainly about Flood – with all the complete datum – among others, causes of flood, rainfall data and IDF Curves, Mann-Kendall, Hydraulics, risk of flood on people – residential, assets and offices/businesses, roads, riparian issues etc., Climate Change and many others. All these are mostly based on the Site Visit, Survey and Investigation around the catchment area. Both Consultants and DID have been very generous to cooperate by providing me all the datum that I require and at the same time, proposed new ideas to ensure proper mitigation is happening.



Part 2 – Conceptual Designrisks involving design and also future construction activity – focus on the proposed mitigation – such as Bunds, Rubberdams, Bridges, Floodgate and Pumps, Detention Ponds etc. and what are the risks associated with them especially during construction, post construction and once it is handed over to DID.

(Source : http://huachenrubber.en.ecplaza.net)

(Source : http://www.gobizkorea.com)



Part 3 – Interim Report - basically the progress and effectiveness of Part 1 & 2 and how Part 3 is going to be..


Part 4 – Final – integration of both Part 1 and 2. Findings – to include numbers of those at risks, match them with the numbers shown on (a) Socio-Economic Report (prepared by another team member to include survey with the experienced residents) and match them with the (b) Flood Hazard Map, Statistics from many stakeholders and Land Use Map (Current and Future). Then I need to do a projection by marking them in Red, Yellow/Orange, and Green at different bandings – Below and above 0.5m and 1m (extracted from Flood Hazard Map prepared by the Consultants). I then build a flood risk map (still being proposed) with proper scales vs properties at risks. 


(Source : http://i.dailymail.co.uk)

On the other hand the Design and Construction risks are mostly proactively identified based on my experience in the construction industry especially my experience in construction of hydro electric dam has proven very useful.


Using the hazard and risk management method, I have identified the risks and effectiveness of the proposed mitigation from the detailed design – both reports and drawings. Also giving points on each mitigation and mark them with 3 colors as well.


Both flood risks and proposed mitigation design are identified on the likelihood, severity, risk matrix and priority in order to to project – high, medium and low a.k.a. Red, Yellow/Orange and Green.

The Risk Management Plan is aimed at providing a high level and proactive findings of flood risk from local flood sources specifically in consequent to the flooding events which may have commenced from the catchment areas determined/identified by DID. It is also to identify design and construction activity risks as far as is practicable resulting from during and where applicable the possible post-construction activities of the proposed mitigation.

I am also most impressed and proud with DID upon seeing the locally customized calculation dubbed as Hydrological Procedure No1- Estimation of Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia (HP 1). The report had outlined the new procedure to estimate design storm using a new IDF relationship and developed new temporal pattern for various rainfall duration. I've seen the final projected results and it's really a WOW factor.So, what are the typical causes of flood? While many has given their views, I too have my own views as well.

a) Loss of flood storage as a result of development extending into and taking over flood plains and drainage corridors

b) Increased runoff rates due to urbanisation


c) Inadequate drainage systems or failure of localised drainage improvement works, extended insufficiently downstream.


d) Constriction at bridges and culverts that are either undersized or partially blocked by debris build-up or from other causes

e) Siltation in waterway channels from indiscriminate land clearing operations

f) Localised continuous heavy rainfall

g) Tidal backwater effect

h) Inadequate river capacity

(Source : http://static.euronews.com)


(Source : http://floodlist.com)

Some also blamed sand mining activity but so far I've seen no evidence of that except such activity; if any; are being controlled and monitored properly by the authorities.
(Source : http://www.ejolt.org)

I also see other issues need to be addressed :

a) it appears that many people reported experiencing interaction of sea level rise with other climate extremes – a potential rise could be coupled with risk of river floods and high population density. Example, the sea rise at almost the same time of the river/drainage floods. (this was reported in the East Coast)

b) Risk for coastal ecosystem (wetlands, mangroves, coral reefs); increased coral bleaching leading to widespread coral mortality for temperature increases



c) Considerations before any mitigation process – that it will not increase flood risk but to minimize risk to people, property, economy and the environment, ensure residual risk are manageable, mitigation compatibility with the town/urban planning program and other relevant factors,

d) Proper channel management – agree and define success criteria, challenge the need of intervention, act to the risk proportion, Recognize that channel form part of dynamic system
Deal with the course - not Symptom, work with natural processes and deliver multiple objectives, Learn and Adapt,

e) Sediment and Debris control especially during proposed mitigation construction phase, (BIG ISSUE)

f) River Diversion during Construction : to determine the right construction time either high or low flow period. This is because the construction during high flow may increase the velocity of flow from outside the work area due to the constriction of the channel, but, the construction during low flow will decrease the flow velocity and hence, potential erosion and movement of sediments/debris mudflow in the stream channel.

g) future appointed flood mitigation main contractors or sub-contractors; as part of the contractual terms and conditions; to submit proper documentation (not limited to the examples quoted) that takes into account periodical risk assessment, PQP, OSHEMP, Construction Work Method Statement that takes into account JSA/JHA, Sediment Control Plan etc. for all Civil and Structural, Mechanical and Electrical works related to the proposed mitigation

There are other concerns that are not highlighted. Despite they are not within the scope of work, failure to address such issues may also affect the project to a certain extend as well. This require cooperation with all the stakeholders, civil and structural consultants, architects, engineers etc. that may be working in the same area to ensure that the surroundings redevelopment/resettlement to be as consistent as possible with the mitigation works.

According to one random Malaysian Institute of Architects (PAM) report, after a large-scale disaster occurs – for example the recent 2014 flood, it is common to witness the influx of relief efforts from all sectors into the affected areas. This can be seen in the recent flooding where many parties such as NGOs come to the aid of the flood victims. When this aid begins to encroach into construction, in particular new homes, the end result is often confusion and efforts that oppose one another. As aid parties and locals alike rush into the rebuild efforts, it will be obvious that these constructions:

i. may be built in zones not gazetted in any local plan as residential,

ii. may not be built with connectivity to any predesigned or pre-laid infrastructure – example – houses built in the surrounding may have no proper or improper drainage or waste management that is not related/linked directly or indirectly to the mitigation structures

iii. may not comply with any state or federal Uniform Building By-Laws,

iv. may not follow any council guidelines on building construction,

v. may not be approved by council for construction,

vi. may not be inspected by a qualified building professional, and

viii. may not have any certification

The issue here is the people living in the surrounding tend to relate their problems with the proposed mitigation which may lead to unnecessary disputes.

Although of little relevance, but should there be any issues raised, the Consultant, DID and the municipal councils should made it clear that it is not within their jurisdiction but in order to get future cooperation from the general public, meetings should be held with other infra and building developers; if any; working in the vicinity. Other infra and building developers also need to work together with the Consultant and all interested parties especially if the new housing or other infrastructures - example on drainage issues and point of final discharge that do not create a conflict with the proposed mitigation structures.

I always view the business of flood mitigation is always a business of “saving people's lives” and “reducing losses of assets” due to flood disaster.

Thus I would like to suggest that the flood mitigation programs everywhere in Malaysia should be expedited and I am pleading the Government to provide more budget for a better and safer mitigation. 

And whoever says Malaysia do not have the experts or expertise?

We also need to have all government and private sectors to prepare a Flood Disaster – Emergency, Evacuation and Recovery Plan. It should also include counselling sessions to the victims.

Don't wait for another flood to come..

A personal note : When I was co-training Lembaga Urusan Tabung Haji on Flood Disaster, Emergency, Evacuation and Recovery Plan, there was a moment silence during the simulation and drills of Flood Disaster...the sorrow and traumatic experience can still be refreshed clearly - but it was a good therapy. 

Let's stop finger pointing...OK? People are very impatient – some have been waiting for so many years to get a better life without having to fear the monsoon season with traumatic events everytime the coming of a new year. Let's also not depend too much on bright sunny day – we need to have some more concrete action and the time is NOW.

I have so many parties and people to thank especially Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM), my fellow team of Consulting Engineers, my fellow partner who recommended and introduced me to the project and so many others who have assisted me to make this FRMP a reality. The DID Guidelines, MASMA (Manual Saliran Mesra Alam), NAHRIM comprehensive researches on Climate Changes are excellent!!




I also have to thank National Security Council, Institution of Engineers Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Architects, numerous researchers, DEFRA UK, Department of Meteorology Malaysia, Department of Environment Malaysia, Department of Occupational Safety and Health Malaysia, municipal councils, SIRIM and other foreign certification bodies and so many others for having excellent proposals, write-ups, case-studies, guides, standards and codes of practice, researchers etc – all published online for me to refer to.





Monday, December 28, 2015

Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2015 - Immigrant Labour







Key Findings 

The Malaysian economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.
  • Growth is projected to be 4.7% in 2015, easing to 4.5% in 2016 and 2017.
  • Private consumption growth is expected to moderate from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2015 and 2016, affected by the slowdown in disposable income and a softer labour market, though unemployment remains low.
  • Fixed investment is projected to continue expanding, driven by strong public infrastructure development, despite a downturn in the oil and gas sector
  • The current account surplus is projected to narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2014 to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, driven by low commodity prices.
  • Malaysia has managed the downturn in commodity prices and the financial market volatility with an appropriate policy mix, notably exchange rate flexibility. 
  • The authorities have allowed the Ringgit to nominally depreciate by 20.5% from January 2015 until December 8, 2015.
  • The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies were timely and critical reforms implemented by the government. Fuel subsidy removals have led to fiscal savings of 0.9% of GDP, while GST collection is expected to amount to 2.3% of GDP in 2015.
  • These measures partly compensated for lower oil related revenues that are projected to decline from 6% of GDP in 2014 (30% of total revenue) to 3.8% of GDP (19.7% of overall revenues) in 2015.
  • Fiscal consolidation and resolving political issues can help reassure foreign investors and cope with heightened external vulnerability.




Immigrant labour plays a crucial role in Malaysia’s development. Immigrants – both high- and low-skilled – will be needed for the country to achieve high income status by 2020.

  • Malaysia has the fourth largest number of migrants and the seventh highest ratio of migrants to total population in East Asia Pacific.
  • There are 2.1 million registered immigrants in Malaysia and likely over 1 million undocumented immigrants, making up 15% of Malaysia’s workforce in 2014.
  • As Malaysians have become more educated and seek out higher-skilled jobs, and as the labour market remains tight, immigrant labour has filled gaps in low- and mid-skilled jobs, which make up three quarters of all jobs in Malaysia.
  • Econometric modeling suggests that a 10% net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase Malaysia’s GDP by as much as 1.1%.
  • For every 10 new immigrant workers in a given state and sector, up to five new jobs may be created for Malaysians in that state and sector, two of them female.  
  • Economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase real GDP by up to 1.1 percent. 
  • A 10% increase in immigration flow slightly increases the wages of Malaysians by 0.14%. Yet it significantly reduces salaries of immigrant workers already in the country by 3.94%.  A 10% increase in immigration flow reduces wages of the least-educated Malaysians, which represent 14% of the total labour force, by 0.74%.
  • The fiscal burden is mainly borne by undocumented immigrants. Documented immigrants in Malaysia raise employment and wages of Malaysians which in turn contributes to public revenues. Also, levies pay for work permits of documented immigrant workers raising 1.2% of total revenues in 2014, they have to have health insurance which reduces the burden on the government.




Recommendations: Six possible directions for reform for Malaysia to strengthen its immigration system.

  • Aligning the institutional and legislative framework with the human resource development strategy;
  • Establishing an evidence-based system for identifying labour market shortages that immigrant labour can fill;
  • Adopting a live-levy system that responds to labour market needs identified in the evidence-based system;
  • Using a broader set of criteria to categorize immigrants (i.e. skills, experience) and defining approaches for their recruitment, employment, and repatriation;
  • Strengthening monitoring and enforcement of immigration and labour regulations; and
  • Investing in upskilling the unskilled workforce, and promoting productivity-enhancing technology.

(Full report : Please e-mail nikzafri@yahoo.com) 

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