THROWBACK 2016

Throwback 2016 : 

Managing Quality in Construction (Excerpt)

Nostalgia today - 2016 - The beginning of a new business relationship.

My 1st MSU Business Lecture for Centre of Excellence for Vision and Eyecare (Management and Science University)

 

MENGENALI PSIKOLOGI PEMBELI - Nik Zafri

 (Artikel Asal ditulis pada hari Rabu, 28 Disember, 2016)

Dalam usaha untuk menjayakan pemasaran atau jualan produk/perkhidmatan kita, suka saya ingatkan agar kita perlu tahu sedikit sebanyak mengenai siapa prospek kita. Walaupun demikian, kita hanya dapat mengetahui 70% dari keperluan pembeli yang berpotensi - itupun pada saya, telah mencukupi. 30% lagi tu, kita kena pelajari dan alami sendiri semasa kita memasar mahupun menjual produk/perkhidmatan kita. Izinkan saya berkongsi beberapa perkara utama mengenai psikologi pembeli :

#1 - Manusia suka berbeli-belah

Ini tabiat utama manusia yang perlu dikenali. Siapapun mereka, apapun latarbelakang mereka, dari mana asal mereka, tidak kira jantina mereka mahupun usia mereka, mereka akan pasti membeli-belah.

Kali pertama kita berhadapan dengan prospek, kita hendaklah mengadakan suasana urusan jual beli yang selesa dan berilah layanan bertaraf VIP pada mereka walaupun mereka tidak membeli produk kita. Yang penting, mereka akan mengingati budi-bahasa kita dan dari 10 orang prospek, 5 prospek akan kembali.

Tetapi awas, prospek kita tidak suka dipaksa membeli malah ada yang tidak suka penerangan terlalu panjang.

Senario ini sama dengan perniagaan MLM yang bersikap terlalu memaksa menyebabkan ahli merasa tidak selesa akhirnya beralih kepada syarikat yang lain. Ada caranya untuk memikat hati ahli atau pembeli. Di negara barat, mereka menyimpan data-data prospek mereka untuk dihubungi jika ada promosi dan produk/perkhidmatan baru untuk dipasarkan.

#2 – Prospek Mempunyai Ego Mereka Sendiri

Sebagai pemasar atau penjual yang bijak, anda perlu membuat ramalan mengenai apakah perkara yang selalunya bermain-main di fikiran pembeli yang berpotensi. Izinkan saya berkongsi 3 daripada persoalan yang selalunya ada di fikiran mereka.

1) “Apakah yang mereka dapat jika membeli dengan kita?”

2) “Bagaimana pula dengan jaminan dan penyengaraan? atau servis selepas jualan”

3) “Terdapat tawaran hebat, hadiah atau diskaun?”

Kejayaan menerangkan ketiga perkara utama di atas boleh dianggap produk/perkhidmatan anda AKAN dibeli...

Elakkan sekali-kali bercerita tentang diri kita kepada prospek kerana ingin memujuk mereka untuk membeli kecuali jika ditanya. Ringkaskan kisah peribadi, senyum dan fokus kepada produk/perkhidmatan yang ingin dipasarkan/dijual.

Tetapi tidak salah jika kita cenderung ke arah mementingkan prospek - contohnya, “Tuan/Puan (akak/abang) ni dari mana?” Perbualan seperti ini kadangkala akan menarik hati prospek, jika mereka menjawabnya, bermakna mereka suka akan produk/perkhidmatan kita.

Selalu lazimkan ucapan “Selamat datang”, “Selamat Pagi/Petang”, “Boleh saya bantu?”

Saya pernah melihat peniaga-peniaga berbangsa Cina menyiapkan gula-gula untuk diberikan pada anak-anak pelanggan. Dengan hanya berbelanja RM5.00 sehari untuk gula-gula, mereka berjaya menawan hati pelanggan

Seperkara lagi, saya sering melihat kesalahan yang selalu dianggap kecil - dilakukan oleh kakitangan jurujual umpamanya :

a) Suka “mengekori” pelanggan - ini pasti akan menimbulkan rasa ketidakselesaan pelanggan. Adakan jarak yang selamat jika mengikuti pelanggan dan sentiasa tersenyum dan bersedia untuk membantu pelanggan.

atau Pasangkan cermin pada sudut yang sesuai atau terbaiknya pasangkan CCTV.

b) Suka memulakan perbualan seperti “Nak beli apa?”

#3 – Pembeli selalunya membeli mengikut emosi

Pada zahirnya, kita nampak seperti prospek kita membuat keputusan yang munasabah dalam membuat pembelian. Sebenarnya, kebanyakan yang selalu saya jumpa membeli mengikut emosi mereka. Anda jangan membiarkan perkara ini berlaku kerana prospek anda mungkin akan terbeli produk yang terlalu mahal dan tidak sesuai untuk mereka.

Jangan mengambil sikap mendiamkan diri, anda perlu “berkorban” sedikit memaklumkan kepada mereka, terdapat produk/perkhidmatan atau pakej yang lebih ekonomik. Ini antara cara yang paling efektif untuk menawan hati pelanggan kerana pelanggan hari ini sangat mementingkan kejujuran penjual/pemasar - dan mereka akan pasti datang kembali menjadi pelanggan tetap. Malah pelanggan seperti ini akan membantu kita memasarkan perniagaan kita.

Tetapi awas, jika pelanggan terasa tertipu, perniagaan anda juga akan berada dalam RISIKO yang besar.

#4 - Pembeli juga membeli berdasarkan fakta

Ini adalah pembeli yang bijak dan mempunyai pengetahuan kadang-kadang melebihi kita sebagai penjual/pemasar. Berhati-hatilah dengan pembeli seperti ini. Selalunya kita akan dapat mengenali mereka apabila mereka bertanya soalan-soalan yang teknikal (malah memberikan jawapan-jawapan yang penuh meyakinkan semasa bertanya)

Elakkan sekali-kali “bertengkar” atau “berhujjah” dengan pelanggan kategori ini. Sebaiknya ucapkan “terima kasih” di atas pengetahuan baru yang diberikan oleh mereka. Bayangkan hanya dengan ucapan terima kasih, mereka akan merasa sangat dihargai dan bangga. Sudah pasti barangan/produk/perkhidmatan anda akan dibeli!

Kadang-kadang, ada pelanggan yang salah memberikan fakta. Sebaiknya anda boleh memilih untuk mendiamkan diri, senyum, mengangguk-angguk dan menampakkan wajah kagum. Kecuali fakta yang diberikan itu ada berbaur fitnah - contohnya “produk ini saya dengar khabar - tidak halal”, maka anda perlu bersedia untuk menerangkan secara ringkas dan menunjukkan bukti seperti sijil halal dan seumpamanya.

Jangan memberikan maklumbalas dengan emosi - “Mana ada?? Dah dapat persijilan halal berzaman-zaman dah” atau “Encik/Cik/Puan ni tidak baca suratkhabar ke? Tidak tengok TV ke?”

Walaupun kita bersifat defensif di atas dasar yang betul dan ingin mempertahankan diri, tetapi kita telah SALAH kaedah penyampaian maklumat berkenaan.

#5 - Pembeli membeli secara mengikut trend

Ini memerlukan kebijaksanaan kita dalam merancang bagaimana nak menjadikan barangan/perkhidmatan kita sebagai “trend” hari ini. Biasanya, kita perlukan foto-foto atau testimoni pelanggan lain atau foto-foto produk berkenaan (yang mungkin telah diiklankan dalam media masa) dsb.

Tidaklah keterlaluan jika kita menggunakan frasa yang “catchy” - contohnya “AS SHOWN ON TV atau YouTube atau “SEBAGAIMANA IKLAN DALAM MEDIA MASA”. Kita kena berani menggunakan frasa-frasa yang boleh menarik perhatian pembeli.

Jika kita berhasrat untuk menarik perhatian semua pelanggan (bergantung di atas jenis produk/perkhidmatan kita), suka saya ingatkan frasa “UNTUK MELAYU ISLAM SAHAJA” atau “UNTUK MUSLIM SAHAJA”, “UNTUK BUMIPUTERA SAHAJA” kadangkala boleh membawa salahfaham di kalangan prospek bukan Melayu atau non-Muslim.

Ini juga satu kesilapan dalam periklanan dan penjualan produk-produk tertentu yang tertera perkataan-perkataan seperti ini pada labelnya menyebabkan produk/perkhidmatan berkenaan tidak disukai oleh mereka yang bukan Melayu dan bukan Islam. Walhal produk/perkhidmatan kita adalah untuk SEMUA orang.

ONLINE AFFILATE MARKETING

Online affiliate marketing have reached an (my guess) estimation $3.0 billion (or more) of payouts between 2016-2017 to webmasters/"blog"masters.

From a humble beginning in the late 90s, it has now become one of the main source of "passive" income that can be done on a part-time basis - even on full time. 

Basically it requires you to have :

a. A blog/website - either paid or free with ads - to me, that's not really important - what is more important is how to draw crowd to your site. (Keywords, Hashtags, Labels, Meta etc)

b. Products/Services - Be specific and put down some information on what you really do or what you are really good at. It helps to state your experience and successful stories as well. Additionally, photos, tables and diagrams will enhance your internet presence.

c. Affiliate with those selling similar Products/Services

Note : It helps to first google "e-book affiliate" - and understand what it is all about

This is the part where you need to choose which affiliate that suits you most...(do not be greedy..I've seen one simple banner on someone's website that have made so much money).

There are so many of them but I like to recommend you :

a) PayDotCom
b) Google AdSense 
c) Commission Junction
d) E-Junkie

and many more.

(Note : You should have PayPal account by now!)

Affiliate yourself with merchants with site publishers and help them sell their products/services (Tip : Find something similar to your products/services - because you know better what you're good at)

Vice-versa - ask merchants to help sell your product as well.

There are many more things to learn about online affiliate marketing...there are so many resources for you to read and understand.

ONE IS SERIOUS, THE OTHER IS NOT - TRUE ACCOUNT by Nik Zafri

SEKITAR PERNIAGAAN FRANCAIS - Oleh Nik Zafri

Oleh : Nik Zafri Abdul Majid, Disember, 2005 - Sebarang penyalinan kembali harta intelek ini dalam apa juga bentuk tanpa kebenaran penulis adalah menyalahi undang-undang

Penulis pasti ramai di kalangan usahawan meminati bidang francais. Francais juga merupakan satu bidang yang sangat berpotensi untuk dimajukan. Bagi yang meminati bidang ini, berikut ada beberapa 'tips' yang boleh penulis kongsi bersama kepada bakal usahawan yang ingin terjun ke bidang ini.

1. Mengetahui apa itu francais dengan membaca maklumat mengenainya, memasuki kursus jangkapendek/jangkapanjang, mendapatkan nasihat rakan-rakan yang telah berjaya di bidang francais, mendapatkan khidmat perunding/peguam/akauntan yang trampil/berkelayakan/berpengalaman, dan sebagainya,

2. Mengenalpasti kemampuan (pengetahuan dan kewangan) anda dan prospek menyertai bidang ini, jika terasa masih ada sebarang kekurangan yang nyata pada diri anda, maka berundurlah dengan seberapa segera,

3. Mengetahui bahawa francais adalah merupakan satu sistem edaran dan francaisor merupakan penciptanya di mana francaisi perlu mematuhinya,

4. Mengetahui bahawa perniagaan francais adalah seumpama mendapatkan satu lesen yang perlu dijaga dengan teliti dan tidak melanggar apa-apa undang-undang yang bersabit dengannya sehingga mengakibatkan lesen itu 'mati' atau 'ditarikbalik',

5. Setiap perniagaan yang baik memerlukan wawasan - maka anda juga perlu membuat satu wawasan selama 1 dekad atau lebih halatuju hidup anda (termasuk peribadi) dalam perniagaan ini - wawasan ini perlu dipecahkan (dan diukur/tandaras/benchmarking) kepada dasar, misi, objektif, sasaran, hasil keputusan termasuk PDCA

6. Memastikan jenis perniagaan yang sesuai - samada produk/perkhidmatan - yang akan diniagakan dalam bentuk francais,

7. Mengenalpasti kehendak francisor (yang boleh diibaratkan sebagai pelanggan) atau francaisi; jika anda francaisor; (yang boleh dianggap sebagai 'rakan kongsi' dan bukannya 100% sebagai seorang 'pembekal atau agen')

8. Adakah anda merancang untuk bekerja sendirian atau secara perkongsian samada francaisi atau francisor,

9. Jika anda berminat menjadi seorang francaisor, anda perlu memastikan jenis industri terbaik dan berpotensi dengan melihat 'petunjuk-petunjuk' seperti prestasi saham, operasi, kewangan, jualan/pemasaran dan prospektus syarikat-syarikat seumpamanya/pesaing sebelum melaburkan wang,

10. Jika anda berminat menjadi seorang francaisi, anda perlu mendapatkan maklumat semaksimanya dari francaisor dan :

10.1 menilai maklumat berkenaan,

10.2 jika perlu, anda harus melawat premis dan/atau kilang pengeluaran milik francaisor,

10.3 anda perlu bertanyakan maklumat-maklumat secara langsung dengan francaisor samada menerusi surat-menyurat, e-mail, panggilan telefon atau semasa lawatan ke premis francaisor,

10.4 jika francaisor memiliki laman web/portal, lawatilah laman web/portal berkenaan,

10.5 minta dari francaisor sebarang brosur/flyer/maklumat teknikal produk/perkhidmatan atau Contoh surat/perjanjian Tawaran Francais,

10.6 jika boleh, dapatkan senarai francaisi yang telah beroperasi dengan francaisor dan cuba hubungi francaisi berkenaan bagi mendapatkan maklumat mengenai francaisor dan cara sistem perniagaan ini beroperasi,

10.7 jika boleh, anda perlu mendapatkan aliran proses perniagaan (core-business plan) daripada francaisor (biasanya jika francaisor telah disijilkan dengan ISO 9000),

10.8 cuba dapatkan maklumat mengenai francaisor daripada vendor-vendor/pembekal-pembekal/sab-kontraktor yang membekalkan khidmat/produk kepada francaisor,

10.9 sertai pameran yang bersabit dengan perniagaan francais dan dapatkan seberapa banyak maklumat - tetapi ini belum mencukupi kerana anda masih perlu melawat premis francaisor,

11. Memahami cara pengurusan kewangan yang berkaitan dengan perniagaan francais yang telah anda pilih, (samada francaisi/francaisor)

12. Mengetahui bayaran-bayaran yang perlu seperti royalti, jaminan bank (BA/BG/LC), iklan dan promosi dan sebagainya,

13. Mengetahui jumlah modal yang diperlukan untuk mula beroperasi?

14. Membuat satu rancangan/pelan perniagaan termasuk analisa pasaran dan risiko, ramalan jualan, sumber manusia yang trampil/berkelayakan/berpengalaman, ramalan aliran tunai, untung rugi, dan sebagainya,

15. Sentiasa mempunyai hubungan/komunikasi yang baik antara francaisi dan francaisor. Walaupun sesetengah masalah pasti akan timbul sehingga ke peringkat yang boleh 'mengancam' kontrak/perjanjian atau kepentingan mana-mana pihak, namun komunikasi yang baik boleh menyelesaikan segala masalah yang timbul,

16. Sentiasa mendapatkan khidmat nasihat perunding/akauntan/peguam yang dilantik - ini penting bagi memahami kehendak francaisor/francaisi seperti spesifikasi, perjanjian yang akan ditandatangani dan sebagainya.

Samada anda seorang francaisi atau francaisor, penulis ucapkan :

SELAMAT MAJU JAYA!!m

KENAPA GAGAL BERNIAGA - TONTONI VIDEO INI JIKA INGIN BERJAYA : NIK ZAFRI

9 FAKTOR KEGAGALAN PERNIAGAAN ANDA – oleh Nik Zafri

1. FOKUS KEPADA 'BEKERJA' DAN BUKANNYA 'BERNIAGA' – mungkin anda sudah terlalu biasa dengan suasana pejabat tempat anda bekerja dahulu. Jadi kerja yang anda lakukan tidak ubah seperti seorang yang ‘makan gaji’. Sepatutnya fokus anda ialah terhadap pembesaran perniagaan dan bukan semata-mata 'bekerja makan gaji'.

2. ANDA MUNGKIN SEORANG 'TUKANG KAYU YANG HEBAT' TETAPI MALANGNYA ANDA TIDAK TAHU BAGAIMANA HENDAK MENJALANKAN 'PERNIAGAAN PERTUKANGAN KAYU'  – ini disebabkan anda terlalu fokus kepada menjadi seorang tukang kayu tetapi anda lupa bahawa perniagaan pertukangan kayu menuntut anda untuk mengetahui aspek-aspek lain seperti *bajet, pemasaran, perancangan, operasi, penstoran, pemeriksaan, aspek kepuasan pelanggan dll*. Dengan kata lain, anda terlalu menumpukan perhatian kepada satu aspek kecil operasi semata-mata.

3. TERLALU CEPAT UNTUK BERKONGSI – mungkin anda merasakan anda tidak cukup modal, maka anda membuat keputusan tergesa-gesa mencari seorang rakan kongsi yang mempunyai wang. 

Akibatnya perniagaan anda tiba-tiba 'tidak menjadi' – bukan kerana anda tidak bijak tetapi anda membiarkan kuasa wang rakan kongsi anda menguasai perniagaan yang anda sendiri bina.

Rakan kongsi anda sebenarnya beranggapan dia adalah seorang pelabur dan bukannya rakan kongsi. Apabila ada ‘mindset’ seperti ini, maka rakan kongsi anda akan menuntut keuntungan kerana dia akan mendakwa bahawa perniagaan anda tidak akan berdiri tanpa bantuannya.

Sebenarnya contoh perkongsian terbaik ialah apabila anda benar-benar telah mendapat keuntungan yang besar setelah beberapa lama berniaga atau keperluan untuk ‘diversify’.  Atau mungkin juga, anda sendiri ingin menjadikan salah satu jabatan anda sebagai  ‘profit centre’ untuk ditukarkan menjadi satu entiti perniagaan kerana potensinya yang besar. Ini adalah beberapa contoh bilakah anda memerlukan perkongsian

Langkah yang baik dan selamat ; jika anda belum bersedia berkongsi; adalah mengambil kakitangan yang berpengalaman dalam perniagaan dan dibayar gaji .

4. ANDA MEMULAKAN PERNIAGAAN DARI 'TIADA APA-APA' DAN BUKANNYA MEMBELI PERNIAGAAN YANG SEDIADA - Walaupun anda membuka perniagaan sendiri kerana anda ingin menjimatkan kos tetapi anda lupa bahawa untuk membina perniagaan anda, banyak aspek* yang anda perlu tahu terutamanya untuk pemasaran dan membina reputasi syarikat – ini akan memakan masa yang amat panjang.

Jika anda tidak mengambilkira faktor-faktor sistem pengurusan yang betul, perniagaan anda tidak akan bertahan lama.

Adalah lebih baik anda membeli sebuah perniagaan yang telah sediada dan bina perniagaan berkenaan sehingga berjaya.

5. BERANGGAPAN BAHAWA BILA IDEA TERCETUS MAKA TERBINALAH SESUATU PRODUK DAN PERNIAGAAN AKAN BERMULA - Sebenarnya pandangan ini kurang tepat.  Perniagaan yang berjaya bukan bergantung kepada idea atau produk semata-mata tetapi kualiti tenaga kerja dan perkhidmatan. 

Tumpukan masa untuk mengambil kakitangan yang benar-benar berpengalaman dan boleh melakukan kerja. Kerana jika anda terlalu ingin berjimat, sudah pasti anda akan membayar gaji yang murah. Hasilnya, walaupun produk anda berpotensi – anda gagal dalam perkhidmatan pembekalan produk dan memenuhi kehendak/kepuasan pelanggan.

6. DUIT ATAU KEUNTUNGAN? – kesilapan banyak usahawan yang baru bermula ialah untuk mendapat duit atau pendapatan yang banyak dalam tempoh yang paling cepat.  Ini merupakan pemikiran ‘kuantiti dan bukannya kualiti’ – kurang sabar, pengurusan masa yang tidak teratur dsb.  Ini merupakan antara faktor yang paling popular yang menyumbang ke arah kejatuhan sesuatu perniagaan.

Sepatutnya, anda perlu menumpukan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dan bukannya pendapatan atau duit. Fokus anda ialah kepada pelan perniagaan dan unjuran kewangan. Kesabaran sangat penting kerana walaupun kadangkala memakan masa sedikit tetapi hasilnya sangat memuaskan.

Jika anda tumpukan kepada mendapat duit, maka anda akan risau bila duit anda habis. Sudah menjadi sifat usahawan seumpama ini akan membeli peralatan, automasi pejabat, mesin dsb. yang mahal serta diluar kemampuan. Lebih-lebih lagi apabila lekas ingin mendapat gayahidup 'berjenama dan mewah' - termasuklah tabiat suka 'berjoli'. Maka perniagaan anda hanyalah dibina berdasarkan angan-angan semata-mata.

7. ANDA BERTANDING HARGA SEMATA-MATA - Anda lupa bahawa tujuan perniagaan adalah untuk mendapatkan keuntungan - walaupun pulangannya kecil tetapi margin keuntungan amatlah besar.  Ianya akan memanjangkan hayat perniagaan anda daripada ‘pertandingan mengurangkan harga’ yang biasanya tidak menghasilkan keuntungan yang tinggi atau mungkin 'tidak untung langsung'!

8. ANDA TIDAK MENJALANKAN R & D DAN TINJAUAN PEMASARAN YANG LENGKAP – Anda lebih suka berniaga sesuatu produk mengikut trend semata-mata(orang lain buat, kita juga perlu buat). 

Perniagaan tanpa R and D dan tinjauan pemasaran yang lengkap pastinya mengakibatkan kerugian kepada perniagaan anda.

9. ANDA MENDAPAT WANG YANG BANYAK UNTUK 'KALI PERTAMA DAN KALI TERAKHIR' – keghairahan anda untuk mendapatkan wang yang banyak sehingga anda lupa bahawa pelanggan anda itu sepatutnya dijaga. Apabila pelanggan anda tidak dijaga, maka dia pasti tidak lagi menggunakan perkhidmatan dan produk anda.

Lebih 'berat' lagi bila pelanggan anda itu menyebarkan kepada pelanggan-pelanggan yang lain akan betapa teruk dan rendahnya kualiti produk dan perkhidmatan anda terutamanya cara anda memenuhi kehendak dan mengendalikan aduan pelanggan.

NEW ISO 9000 - DRAFT INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 9001:2015 - SNEAK PREVIEW - NIK ZAFRI

HI-IMPACTS - by Nik Zafri

UPDATE WEEKLY


Hi Impact Lesson No. 1 : (February 04, 2014)

IMPROVEMENT

(1) You need to improve yourself
(2) Then your family
(3) Then your surroundings
(4) Then your friends around you
(5) Then a bigger group
(6) Then the society at large
(7) Then the district(s)/region(s)
(8) Then the country
(9) FINALLY THE WORLD

Hi Impact Lesson No. 2 : : (February 05, 2014)

MAKE THE DIFFERENCE

What can you do to make the difference to the world that you live in?

What would be your contribution to ensure the realization of that difference?

a) Make a generous donation to the needies
b) Create job opportunities
c) Join the volunteers group
d) Inspire others
e) Help find or research on cures/vaccines for critical plague/deseases

Don't have the time, then MAKE the time!

Hi Impact Lesson No. 3 : : (February 05, 2014)

PLAN

a) Plan properly - Work Program, Product/Services Plan, Milestone, KPI/KRA, Objective, Vision-Mission-Objective-Goals, Policy etc.

b) Resources - Budget, People, Plant & Machinery, ICT, HR, Conducive Working Environment

Hi-Impact - Lesson No. 4: (February 11, 2014)

BE SMART - WORK HARDER

a) Venture into new things
b) Learn new things
c) Improve the branding
d) Improve business development
e) Be susceptible to surroundings
f) Get back into the marketplace
g) Follow and exceed the trend - take one step ahead


Hi Impact Lesson No. 5 (February 23, 2014)

INVENTION VS INNOVATION

a) Invention is different than innovation
b) Invention is scientific but Innovation is Technology
c) Invention needs Innovation.
d) Innovation needs Invention
e) Innovation of existing invention is considered "a new invention"
f)  Inventing a new Innovation is considered "a new invention"

Hi Impact Lesson No. 6 (February 25, 2014)

CONTINUAL IMPROVEMENT

a) Reducing non-conformities in product and workmanship
b) Academic (Study & Book Smart) vs Competency (Practical and Street Smart) Both are required equally depending on what you are talking about.
c) Training and Advertising - Core success secret recipes
d) Don't think you are smart enough - there are others aobut to be smarter than you are - compete!
e) Don't stay too long in a comfort zone
f) Challenging your current policy and objectives - make them better - relate it closer to your scope of work/services/product provision

g) Always exceed your client's expectations!

MANAGING BUSINESS IN AN ORGANIZATION - NIK ZAFRI

My lecture (mixed BM & English) for lecturers, tutors and management staff from Faculty of Health and Life Science, Department of Optomery and Visual Science, Management and Science University of Malaysia (MSU) during the Family Day. This module developed to suit the theme of motivation and team building. (This module is also part of our FB Pages - Knowledge Management & E-Smart Learning Solutions)

Malaysia Continues to Improve in Ease of Doing Business

WORLD BANK
October 23, 2012
PRESS RELEASE


Kuala Lumpur, October 23, 2012—A new report from IFC and the World Bank finds that Malaysia remains among the world’s most business-friendly countries.

Released today, Doing Business 2013: Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises  notes that Malaysia made dealing with construction permits faster by improving the one-stop center for new buildings and by reducing the time to connect to telephone services.

“Malaysia is to be commended for its ongoing efforts to reduce the costs of doing business,” said Annette Dixon, World Bank Country Director for Malaysia. “This will help the private sector drive growth, especially if Malaysia can build on its success by continuing to tackle long-term challenges, such as improving the quality of education.”

Malaysia also cut the number of days it takes to register property transfers by introducing a new caseload management system at the land registry. Inspired by effective supply chain management strategies employed by the private sector, the registry reduced registration time from 41 days in 2011 to 7 days in 2012 for non strata properties (those that are not part of a subdivision or common-interest community).

“Malaysia continues to improve the quality of domestic regulations. This has great potential to energize the private sector when combined with stepped-up implementation of strategic reform initiatives, especially the liberalization of services sectors and the enforcement of the new competition law,” said Frederico Gil Sander, World Bank Senior Economist for Malaysia.

The Doing Business 2013 report, which covers the period from June 2011 to June 2012 and which uses data for indicators that measure regulation affecting 10 key areas of the life cycle of local businesses, finds that Singapore tops the global ranking on the ease of doing business for the seventh consecutive year, while Hong Kong SAR, China, holds onto the second spot.

The report finds that 23 economies in East Asia and the Pacific have made their regulatory environment more business-friendly since 2005. During that time, China made the greatest progress in improving business regulations for local entrepreneurs. The report also notes that 11 of 24 economies in East Asia and the Pacific improved business regulations in the past year.

Joining Singapore and Hong Kong SAR, China, on the list of the 10 economies with the most business-friendly regulations are, in this order, New Zealand; the United States; Denmark; Norway; the United Kingdom; the Republic of Korea; Georgia; and Australia.

About the Doing Business report series

Doing Business analyzes regulations that apply to an economy’s businesses during their life cycle, including start-up and operations, trading across borders, paying taxes, and protecting investors. The aggregate ease of doing business rankings are based on 10 indicators and cover 185 economies. Doing Business does not measure all aspects of the business environment that matter to firms and investors. For example, it does not measure the quality of fiscal management, other aspects of macroeconomic stability, the level of skills in the labor force, or the resilience of financial systems. Its findings have stimulated policy debates worldwide and enabled a growing body of research on how firm-level regulation relates to economic outcomes across economies. This year’s report marks the 10th edition of the global Doing Business report series.


DOWNLOAD THE 140 PAGES FULL REPORT HERE!!

PELAN PERNIAGAAN

Kajian : Nik Zafri (Kajian asal 1998)

Pelan perniagaan yang baik ialah yang berwibawa, mudah difahami dan menarik perhatian golongan sasaran yang tidak begitu biasa dengan sesuatu jenis perniagaan. Walaubagaimanapun, pelan perniagaan tidak menjamin kejayaan tetapi ianya dapat meminimakan kegagalan.

Fakta :

1) Terdiri dari sasaran perniagaan - justifikasi kenapa ianya boleh dicapai dan bagaimana untuk mencapainya

2) Mempunyai maklumat organisasi yang akan memastikan sasaran ini tercapai
2.1) Antara sasaran yang penting ialah sasaran kewangan - ramalan keuntungan dengan analisa yang logik

3) Untuk semua jenis organisasi - tidak kira kerajaan mahupun swasta tetapi mempunyai sasaran kewangan yang berbeza.

3.1) Kerajaan/sektor awam/agensi biasanya menumpukan kepada keseimbangan KPI dan marjin atau 'mengoptimakan 'revenue' (hasil bersih ditolak perbelanjaan selepas pembekalan perkhidmatan - umpamanya kutipan cukai, fi perkhidmatan dsb)

4) Juga dipanggil pelan pemasaran. Dalam konteks ini, kadangkala pelan perniagaan atau pelan pemasaran biasanya diaplikasikan bukan sahaja sebelum perancangan membuka sesuatu perniagaan tetapi juga semasa operasi contohnya dalam kes pengenalan kepada produk baru, penjenamaan dan diversifikasi perniagaan.

5) Perlu ditumpukan kepada faktor luaran dan faktor dalaman.
5.1) Faktor Luaran - pemegang saham, pelanggan, pengguna sasaran.
5.2) Faktor Dalaman - komunikasi, latihan dan pembangunan, dasar, objektif, pengurusan strategik, analisa pemasaran, sumber manusia, 'balance scorecard', produk/perkhidmatan, sumber (seperti ICT, Pejabat dll) dll.

5) Dalam faktor 4 di atas, terdapat juga lain-lain pelan yang dipanggil pelan operasi. Bergantung kepada jenis perniagaan/industri - contohnya pembinaan, kadangkala ianya dipanggil sebagai Pelan Kualiti Pembinaan yang menjadi salah satu syarat kontrak oleh pihak Klien kepada Kontraktor Utama.

6) Pelan perniagaan merupakan mekanisma membuat keputusan. Sebenarnya tidak ada sebarang format khusus kerana ianya bergantung kepada siapakah golongan sasaran dan jenis objektif yang telah dirancang.

7) Paling popular, pelan perniagaan diperlukan untuk tujuan mendapatkan pinjaman (jenis pelbagai) atau pembiayaan (contohnya pembiayaan ekuiti) dari institusi perbankan dan kewangan - di mana penumpuan diberikan kepada cara dan keupayaan pembayaran kembali, sumber yang sediada, prospek pembangunan, faktor persaingan dan 'market survival' dll.

8) Penyediaan pelan perniagaan memerlukan pelbagai kemahiran, pengetahuan dan pengalaman untuk memastikan keberkesanann jenis disiplin perniagaan yang dihuraikan. Antara perkara yang diutamakan ialah kewangan, sumber manusia, harta intelek, rantaian pembekalan (supply chain), operasi dan pemasaran.

9) Cara persembahan yang sesuai

9.1) format persembahan mestilah ringkas, menarik dan munasabah - penumpuan kepada ringkasan eksekutif, graf, ringkasan kewangan, KPI/Objektif, perkhidmatan/produk (demonstrasi jika perlu) dll yang perlu
9.2) 'pitching' suara yang sesuai - fakta lisan yang dipersembahkan mestilah dapat menarik perhatian pembiaya, pelanggan dan rakan kongsi.
9.3) persembahan yang berjaya biasanya akan menarik interaksi yang positif - ini biasanya adalah satu tanda kejayaan dalam sesuatu persembahan,
9.4) Siapkan salinan ringkas persembahan untuk pembiaya, pelanggan dan rakan kongsi supaya mereka dapat merujuksilang di samping melihat persembahan
9.5) Semakin tinggi pengetahuan mereka yang mempersembahkan, semakin tinggi prospek kejayaan persembahan berkenaan.

Struktur tipikal pelan perniagaan (pra-perniagaan)
- muka hadapan dan kandungan, ringkasan eksekutif, keterangan perniagaan, analisa persekitaran, latarbelakang industri, analisa persaingan, analisa pemasaran, pelan pemasaran, pelan operasi, faktor pengurusan, kewangan dan lampiran/jadual.

Hi everyone!!

It's been a while...dropping by to share a very good article which has caused me some delay in submitting a very important document to the client.

Luckily my client called me up to remind me...

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Speeches, Testimony, Papers
Global Economic Prospects 2008/2009: Hoping for a Global Slowdown and a US Recession
by Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute

Paper presented at the thirteenth semiannual meeting on Global Economic Prospects
April 3, 2008

© Peterson institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.

Overview

After four years of average annual global real GDP growth of better than 4 1/2 percent, recent data indicate that the pace of advance is slowing in the major industrial countries, with the US economy on the verge of, and perhaps already in, outright recession. So far, the evidence points to less of a slowdown in other industrial countries, while most emerging-market economies appear likely to maintain quite strong, albeit somewhat slower, growth.

Meanwhile, world consumer price inflation (on a 12-month basis) is up from barely 2 percent seven years ago to nearly 5 percent as of February 2008. Among both industrial (except for Japan) and major emerging-market countries, inflation is now running at, or in most cases somewhat above, rates consistent with policy objectives. Driven by persistently rising global demand, commodity prices continue to surge upward across the board, especially measured in US dollars but also in terms of the rapidly appreciating euro.

In this situation, the world economy really needs what is now forecast for 2008/2009: a significant slowing of economic growth, down to 3.8 percent (year over year) in 2008 from 4.7 percent in 2007.1 This slowdown will be led by a decline of demand growth in the US economy, which is both pronounced and extends over a considerable period. Indeed, in view of the exceptionally aggressive easing of macroeconomic policies already in place in the United States and the likelihood of monetary policy remaining highly accommodative so long as US financial markets remain under stress, it is now desirable that real GDP growth for 2008 fall to a forecasted rate of barely more than 1 percent (year over year)—an outcome consistent with a very mild and brief recession. Reflecting some risk of a somewhat deeper and more prolonged recession in the United States, the growth forecast for 2009 (year over year) is set at 2 percent.

For the rest of the world, a mild US recession in 2008 will have a modest negative effect on real GDP growth, with more significant impacts in Mexico and Canada. In countries where the slowdown threatens to become excessive and inflation is under control, some easing of monetary and perhaps fiscal policy is both likely and appropriate. More generally, however, it is too soon to call for a general and significant easing of macroeconomic policies. A general slowdown in global economic growth is needed to cool the clearly apparent upsurge in worldwide inflation.

Some countries, including Australia, China, and Sweden, have recently tightened monetary policies in efforts to forestall inflation. Other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have eased monetary policies modestly in response to weakening economic growth. Quite appropriately, however, no country has so far followed the lead of the Federal Reserve in aggressive monetary easing.

As the custodian of the world's second most important currency, the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) is particularly noteworthy. Inflation in the euro area is running more than a percentage point above the ECB's announced objective. The euro area economy has recently been growing significantly more rapidly than its potential rate of about 1 1/2 percent. The unemployment rate has fallen half a percentage point below the minimum reached in the last expansion. Key monetary aggregates are surging at rates well above their desired target ranges. In this situation, one would normally have expected the ECB to have raised its key policy interest rate a further 100 basis points since last summer.

Instead, with financial turbulence spreading to some extent from the United States to euro area financial markets and institutions, with evidence that euro area economies are beginning to slow, and with a sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which is likely to slow growth and impede inflation, the ECB has wisely held back from further interest rate increases. With the euro area economy now expected to expand by about 1 1/2 percent this year (in line with potential), the timing and direction of future adjustments in ECB interest rates remain—appropriately—dependent upon the evolving balance of risks for inflation and economic growth.

For Japan, the strengthening of the yen against the dollar in recent months and weakening of exports to the United States, together with likely weakness in domestic demand growth, suggest a further write-down in the forecast for real GDP growth for 2008 to 1.2 percent (from 1¾ percent forecast last October). This reflects the assumption that the surprising upsurge of GDP growth in the final quarter of 2007 will be partly offset in the first half of this year.

For the industrial countries as a group, real GDP growth this year is now forecast to be 1.5 percent, and growth for 2009 is projected to be moderately stronger at about 1.9 percent.

In emerging-market economies, circumstances vary and so do appropriate policies, but the general prospect is for continued quite strong economic growth, despite the slowdown in the industrial countries.

Is this "decoupling?" Not really. Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries, and Asian economies that are particularly dependent on exports to the United States are already feeling and will continue to feel the effects of the US economic slowdown. More broadly, however, strong growth of domestic demand in many emerging-market economies will sustain reasonably strong GDP growth, and rising demand for raw materials by key emerging-market economies, most importantly China, will help keep commodity prices strong and aid growth in other emerging-market economies.

Overall, I forecast that growth for developing and emerging-market economies as a group this year will be about 6 1/2 percent, down from almost a 7 1/2 percent advance in 2007. For 2009, I now project slightly slower growth. The slowdown will be more severe, however, if growth in the industrial countries, especially the United States, turns out to be meaningfully below the present forecast. Exports from emerging-market countries would then be hit in volume terms, and prices of commodity exports could take a serious tumble. Some developing countries, especially among the primary commodity exporters, could face serious economic challenges and potential crises.

On this occasion, Arvind Subramanian is available to share his expertise on emerging-market economies, particularly in Asia and especially India. Accordingly, I will limit my remarks on these economies to selected observations on some key emerging-market countries. Then, in view of the departure from the Institute of my colleague Martin Baily and the (at least) temporary absence of Douglas Holtz-Eakin, I will turn to discuss growth prospects in the industrial countries, especially the United States. This should provide background for Morris Goldstein's more in-depth observations on the present financial crisis and proposals for reform.

Sustained Growth in Emerging Markets

China's economy continues to surge forward, so much so that the authorities are tightening policies to cool down inflation. Growth will likely slow from 11 1/2 percent last year to about 10 percent this year and next. On the policy front, the key action that should be taken—but that the Chinese authorities have so far refused—is a significant step appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and in real effective terms, combined with policies to stimulate domestic demand.

In the rest of emerging Asia, growth will likely moderate somewhat in 2008 and 2009 but stay above 6 percent, with India continuing to grow at nearly 8 percent.

In Latin America, Mexico will suffer spillover effects from the slowing US economy, and growth this year is likely to fall to about 2 1/2 percent before recovering modestly in 2009. In contrast, Brazil should be able to sustain growth of nearly 5 percent, despite the strong appreciation of the real against the dollar. Growth in Argentina and Venezuela is expected to slow from the high rates of recent years, bringing down the growth rate for all of Latin America to about 4 1/2 percent this year and slightly less in 2009.

For Central and Eastern Europe, weak growth in Hungary and Turkey hurt regional performance in 2007 and partly offset strong results in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. For 2008 and 2009, regional growth will likely run about 4 percent, reflecting partly the impact of slower growth in Western Europe.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, the dominant Russian economy should continue to grow at about 7 percent, and growth rates will likely remain somewhat higher (on average) in the smaller economies.

For the Middle East, high oil prices will help keep growth strong in the energy-exporting countries. The larger and more diversified economies of Egypt and Israel should also maintain growth rates in the 5 percent range.

High commodity prices will continue to benefit many African countries, and growth in the region appears likely to continue at least at a 5 percent rate.

Slowing in Other Industrial Countries

Among the industrial countries other than the United States, growth will slow significantly from the 2 3/4 percent advance of 2007 to barely more than 1 1/2 percent this year. However, aside from the United States, I see significant risk of recession this year only in Japan and possibly Italy. The impact of the yen's recent appreciation and weakening of exports to the United States, together with deteriorating sentiment among Japanese businesses and consumers, could push GDP into a couple of quarters of negative growth, even if year-over-year growth remains slightly positive. And the Japanese policy authorities have little room to provide offsetting stimulus.

In Canada, growth this year will likely fall a little below 2 percent, under the impact of slowing US growth and a strong Canadian dollar. However, solid income growth from strong export revenues should keep domestic demand relatively robust, and the Canadian authorities have considerable room to ease policy should that appear needed to forestall very weak growth or recession.

In the United Kingdom, growth this year is also likely to slow to slightly less than 2 percent. But this is not entirely unwelcome in view of the need to curb inflationary pressures, and the Bank of England has plenty of room to ease further should that appear warranted. The Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to tighten in recent months and would surely welcome the forecasted slowing of growth to 3 percent this year.

In the euro area, as previously noted, the projected slowing of growth this year to 1.6 percent from 2.6 percent last year involves nothing more than slowing to the potential growth rate. The slowdown will affect all countries in the area. The Italian economy looks likely to be extremely sluggish and is at some risk of falling into recession. Growth should remain stronger in Germany, sustained by good export performance in the face of weaker consumer demand. France will lag slightly behind Germany, while Spain will slow considerably due to a sharp downturn in home building. The slowdown will probably be reflected in a small uptick in unemployment and will be unpopular with most politicians. However, with inflation running well above the ECB's tolerance rate of 2 percent, the central bank is likely to see the slowing of growth more as a solution than as a problem.

A Mild US Recession

Despite signs of increasing financial strains, the US economy achieved almost 5 percent annualized growth in the third quarter of last year. Economic data that became available through Christmas indicated that the economy was still expanding through November. The data since late December, however, suggest that economic activity has been no better than flat and probably modestly declining since very late last year. The economic data do not indicate an economy that is crashing into steep recession.

The three most recent monthly employment reports have shown small declines in private-sector jobs. Weekly initial unemployment claims have risen from around 300,000 to slightly over 350,000. Residential investment continues to decline. The boom in nonresidential construction appears to have peaked. Data on durable goods orders and shipments suggest weak or even declining business equipment investment. As should be expected in the face of falling home prices and household wealth, sharp increases in energy and food prices, and stagnating employment, real consumer spending has not increased since November—but it has not declined.

Net exports are probably continuing to improve, but this will not be enough to offset weakness in the other components of final demand. Annualized real GDP growth in the first quarter will likely be modestly negative—probably between minus one-half and minus one percent in the first quarter. (And, if there is a modestly positive result, it will probably reflect an upsurge in inventory investment, which is not a positive sign for future growth.)

The second quarter may see moderation in the pace of decline of residential investment, but the other elements of domestic demand are likely to remain weak. Another quarter of modestly negative real GDP growth now seems to be the most likely outcome. Whether this will be enough to persuade the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to proclaim an official recession is not clear, but I would now put the likelihood of such a recession at over 50 percent.

By June, the tax cuts from the recently passed fiscal package will be flowing into consumers pockets, bumping up consumer spending mainly in the third quarter. Some, not unreasonable, forecasts suggest that the stimulus could induce as much as a 5 percent annualized gain of real consumer spending in the third quarter, implying a considerable temporary boost to GDP growth. My view is more restrained, partly because I expect that businesses will absorb some of any surge in consumption spending (particularly for durables) into reductions in inventories.

On the other hand, businesses have kept inventories quite lean for the past three years, and there is no indication of a general inventory overhang (aside from the stockpile of unsold homes, which is not counted in business inventories). Sharp declines of inventory investment into negative territory have been a feature of all ten postwar recessions. It is a positive sign that the magnitude of any inventory correction in the present episode appears likely to be limited.

In sum, the prospect is that with the benefit of the fiscal stimulus, the US economy will bounce back to moderately positive growth this summer. By then the massive contraction of residential investment, which began two years ago, should be complete—with new home building running just below one million units, less than half of its recent peak level. Growth of consumer spending is likely to be weak after the effects of the stimulus are spent, but inventory investment should bounce back, and net exports may be expected to continue to make positive contributions to GDP growth. During the second half of 2008, it is reasonable to expect growth to rebound to 2 to 3 percent.

The suggested pattern of modestly falling GDP in the first half and moderate rebound in the second half implies that real GDP will show a very meager advance of about one-half percent on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis. Year-over-year real GDP growth would be barely more than 1 percent. In comparison, in the 2001 recession—the mildest of the postwar era—fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth was 0.4 percent and year-over-year growth was 0.8 percent.

The 2001 recession was followed by an initially weak recovery, with real GDP growing at only a 1.7 percent rate during the six quarters after the official end of recession, and with the unemployment rate continuing to rise to a peak of 6.3 percent in May 2003. On this occasion, I expect that the economy will remain quite sluggish through 2009, with growth proceeding at about a 2 percent annual rate. Weak growth of consumer spending in the face of significant losses of household net worth associated with lower real home values will be the key reason for this sluggishness.

Partly offsetting weak consumer spending growth will be continued improvement in US net exports, reflecting both slow import growth and continued rapid export growth. With the usual lag, the substantial depreciation of the dollar over the past year will contribute to the improvement in US net exports in 2009 and beyond.

We see here what I earlier called "reverse coupling." From 1995 through 2004, relatively strong growth of domestic demand in the United States and the effects of a strong dollar (with lags extending this effect) led to persistent deterioration in US real net exports. Thus, the United States was exporting demand to the rest of the world at a time when domestic demand growth in the rest of the world was relatively sluggish.

This process has been operating in reverse since the summer of 2006. Slower domestic demand growth in the United States, combined with stronger demand growth abroad and the effects of a significantly weaker dollar, have begun to significantly improve US real net exports. Thus, during the past year and a half, the rest of the world economy has been helping to pull the US economy along. This process may continue for several years as consumer spending growth in the United States remains restrained by the effects of lower household wealth, making room for expanding the supply of US net exports without contributing to inflationary pressures in the United States. For this process to continue relatively smoothly, however, the rest of the world needs to sustain reasonably robust demand growth and the United States needs to avoid too sharp a decline in domestic demand. The adjustment of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which is essential for this process, is now largely complete, except for the needed appreciations of some Asian currencies, most notably the Chinese renminbi.

Turmoil in Global Financial Markets

A key feature and source of uncertainty in the present economic situation is the continuing turmoil in financial markets, especially in the United States but with spillovers to Europe and to a limited extent (so far) to Japan and emerging markets. Global equity markets have sold off amidst the turmoil, but markets for credit instruments and financial institutions dealing in such instruments have been most affected.

Three issues concerning this financial-market turmoil deserve special attention:

(1) What has caused this financial turmoil, notwithstanding strenuous efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to contain it?

(2) What risks does it pose to the global economy?

(3) Have the policy responses been adequate and appropriate?

Regarding the causes of the turmoil, it is noteworthy that it has been most severe in US financial markets and institutions. Europe and, to a lesser extent, Canada and Japan have also been affected. In these other countries, a few institutions (such as the mortgage lender Northern Rock in the United Kingdom) have gotten into trouble on their own, related to their domestic activities. But most of the problems faced by non-US institutions have arisen because of their involvement with financial instruments originating in the United States.

In the United States, the initial underlying difficulties arose from subprime mortgages and financial instruments involving such mortgages. However, the crisis is much broader and deeper and has gone on longer than can plausibly be explained by this underlying cause. Across quite a broad spectrum, credit markets have become illiquid and dysfunctional. Interest rate spreads relative to US Treasury obligations have shot up and remained high and volatile even for higher-quality credits. Markets for important classes of bundled instruments have frozen up, and values for some of these instruments—to the extent that they can be determined—have plummeted. All this turmoil, well beyond what can plausibly be explained by developments in the real economy, indicates that financial markets and institutions themselves are mainly responsible for the crisis.

The extent of this crisis in credit markets is even more remarkable in view of the exceedingly aggressive actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the important but less aggressive actions of other leading central banks. Contrary to the nonsense spoken by many financial-market commentators, the Federal Reserve has not been "behind the curve" in its policy response. In fact, the easing of US monetary policy in the present possible recession has far outstripped the pace of easing in past actual recessions. On top of this, the Federal Reserve has recently taken truly extraordinary actions to extend specific liquidity support to a wide range of US financial institutions.

The official explanation for these extraordinary actions is not that they are motivated primarily by the desire to protect financial institutions from losses but rather to head off the risk of major damage to the general economy spreading from difficulties in the financial sector. So far, however, there is little indication that the general economy is suffering much damage from the credit market turmoil—beyond some deepening of the downturn in US residential investment. In particular, the present slowdown in the US economy and around the world is not much more than what we would normally have expected in view of falling home values, higher food and energy prices, and other developments aside from the turmoil in credit markets.

Does this imply that the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to protect the financial sector, has overreacted to the credit market turmoil? Has it eased too aggressively, unduly raising the risk of inflation down the road? Has its rescue of the financial sector by cutting massively the cost of funds and the provision of specific liquidity support generated far too much moral hazard relative to the value of the protective effect of these actions against real hazards faced by the general economy?

At this point, the answers to these questions are not entirely clear, but two conclusions can be reached with high confidence. First, given the massive easing already undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of some modest further easing, the US economy now needs to undergo at least a near recession if the Federal Reserve's easing is not to be excessive. Second, if the Federal Reserve's highly aggressive actions have really been warranted to protect the economy from substantial harm, then deep reforms of the financial system, including the Federal Reserve's policies and practices, are clearly needed to reduce the likelihood of such problems in the future. The Federal Reserve cannot pose only as the hero riding to the rescue of the economy and the financial system. Its role as one of the villains whose earlier actions and inactions contributed to the present crisis needs to be fully and carefully assessed.


Table 1 Real GDP growth projections as of April 3, 2008 (percent change, year over year)




Note

1. The figures for global GDP growth are aggregated from the growth rates for individual countries using purchasing power parity (PPP)–based measures of exchange rates employed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). Based on a major study supported by the World Bank, estimates of PPP exchange rates have recently been substantially revised, with the general result that the weights in world GDP of the industrial countries have been somewhat increased while those of emerging-market economies have been correspondingly reduced. Because emerging-market economies, most notably China and India, have been growing far more rapidly than most industrial countries in recent years, the effect of the revision in PPP exchange rates is to lower the figure for global growth (without changing growth rates for individual countries) by about 1/2 percentage point. Thus the present estimate for global growth of 4 3/4 percent in 2007 under the new PPP-based exchange rates corresponds to an estimate of 5 1/4 percent growth under the old weights. The weights used in table 1 are estimates of the weights that the IMF will use for the forecast to be reported in the current WEO.
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RESPONSE FROM MELBOURNIAN AND COUNTER-RESPONSE FROM NIK ZAFRI - IN GLOBAL MALAYSIAN FORUM

Melbournian : A very lengthy analysis that echos familiar cliche from "soft-landers". My only comment is that there are two important factors that seems to be absent from his presentation: ie the component of human emotion and the lack of accountability in the derivative instruments that are prevalent in recent years. The health of credit market depends un-surprisingly on market "credibility". Quite akin to the railroad stock bubble and the (in)famous tulip futures fiascos in the past , the total sum of global derivatives todays seems to have exceeded the true intrinsic values of the actual goods and services that these instruments are supposed to underpin. Laws of conservation and Newton's principle of inertia are no longer relevant. No longer can one confidently say for sure that one man's gains equal in exactitude to another's losses. Containment ? Lets hope and pray.

Nik Zafri :

Hi Melbournian, I must say that I'm impressed!

This research seem to miss out "CCI" (Consumer Confidence Index) which I think suitably describes what you meant by 'human emotion' in the context of economics. (it's obvious isn't it....the article is touching on 'purchasing power', 'manpower', business surroundings - which are all linked to the CCI)

Surprisingly I have also discovered that the Global CCI have always been missing (in fact seldom being measured) But; in US; it will suddenly 'appear' during proposal to hike interest rates by the Feds - hence one of the main indicators to the performance of the stock market worldwide.

I can understand why the CCI is sometimes there and sometimes not there...it's because of the big variance between one country to another. CCI is suppose to be the consumption indicator for GDP.

Lack of accountability on derivative instruments

What you have said - coincidentally reminding me of the core of Management - it is said that :

"Responsibility is a derivative of authority and accountability is a derivative of responsibility"

It's a paradox - I do not know if there is any connection.

Anyway, in this case, the derivative instrument (to the accounting standards esp. balance sheet) becomes a concern when it involve hedging and embedded derivatives (contract) - to determine of whether they (derivatives) are liabilities or asset. Otherwise positioning of finance and determining the derivatives value cannot be accurately achieved.

I'm not a qualified accountant but I do know the affects of hedging either the normal fair value, cashflow or currency. Now? As you said and I would to agree to it that most accounting (and auditing) bodies (even in Malaysia) are 'shouting' demanding accountability but again, it is easier said than done unless further education to include hedging activities and the volatility behind them in the context of derivatives are developed further.

Yes, breaking every rule in the book is now trendy!! It is also the reason why I am really interested in the concept of Knowledge-Based Economy and Knowledge Management but of course these two terms are moulded according to my style of intepretation - in short my experience. At times, I never trust figures, data and statistics but I use my instincts to make decisions.

Finally quoting you : "Let's Pray and Hope"